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Fed fund futures, bonds, and the dollar all see a very hawkish Fed. The stock market rally appears to be over as momentum chasing ends. Now all Powell has to do is leave no doubt in his message on Friday. A day of reckoning is coming for the stock market, possibly as soon as...
Last quarter, we discussed the ongoing trends of sticky inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve. These trends accelerated in Q2 as the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose again to 9.1% in June. Equity volatility remains elevated, but strategies such as covered calls can offer compelling op...
Stories often get investors looking the wrong way. Much of the latest research suggests that investors move away from relying upon market stories. 4090SPX is our next main support region. The more I read public articles and the comments thereto, the more hair I tear out ...
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.27 in July, with all four categories of indicators rising. The 3-month average was unchanged at -0.09. That indicates growth is slightly below trend and is far from the recession threshold of -0.7. The data in August so far has bee...
A new survey by PwC says 50% of employers plan layoffs. Signs of a U.S. manufacturing recession are appearing in Fed (Federal Reserve Bank of the U.S.) regional reports. The real estate sector, a major driver of economic growth, is slowing. Non-bank mortgage lenders are filing for...
Equity markets have clearly taken notice of rising inflation - and not in a good way. Conventional wisdom has traditionally said different things about how equities and bonds should behave in an inflationary environment - some hold to the notion that stocks should be protected from hi...
The problem for bonds is that German inflation can easily cross the ocean due to oil and natural gas supply tightening further as US producers export LNG and crude oil to Europe in search of higher spot prices. West Texas Intermediate Crude and US Natural Gas had a volatile week. ...
Strong data or not, the Fed will likely stay the course on rates. Why inflation is still the Fed's biggest concern, even as it eases. Why the robust jobs market didn't get the recession memo. Stronger U.S. economic data is leading to speculation the U.S. Federal ...
We can’t actually see the present because there is a lag between the information being captured by our eyes and processed by our brains. The rising dollar, rising rate environment are well known and entrenched at this point. There are still some problems we have to get past...
Interest rate volatility has been high, and rotations between value and growth in equities have been sharp. Over the past few decades, a recession was generally accompanied by a decline in earnings and a sell-off in equity markets, because a non-inflationary recession meant lower nomi...
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2024-01-18 02:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2023-12-02 12:15:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...