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Summary Forecasters have no choice but to base their judgments on models, be they complex or informal, mathematical or intuitive. Small errors in assumptions regarding the economic environment and small changes in participants’ behavior can make differences that are highly ...
Summary Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell by 6,000 for the week ending September 3rd, coming in at 222,000. The four-week average fell to 233,000, down 7,500 from the prior week. Initial claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison, but...
Summary The trailing twelve-month performance spread between the small-cap growth and large-cap value indices is currently at -20.5 percentage points. This year’s trailing twelve-month performance spread was the lowest since 2001. Small-cap growth stocks tend to trade a...
Summary Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 315,000 in August 2022 to a seasonally adjusted level of 152,744,000. Starting with the Age 16-17 portion of the teen workforce, the number of working teens reversed a three-month downtrend, jumping from 179,000 to 2,255,000. ...
Summary Global economic output contracted in August for the first time since June 2020, according to the latest PMI survey data. For the first time since early 2020, all four largest developed economies reported falling output. Reduced input cost inflation and worsening demand...
Summary Jackson Hole reset expectations to focus more on inflation. The U.S. dollar should stabilize over the medium-term amid hawkishness from other central banks and slowing economic data. At stake is Europe’s ability to refill their storage tanks ahead of winter. ...
Summary Russia shut down its Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline last Wednesday for “maintenance” and will thereby provide Europe with a preview of how it must learn to cope without any new Russian natural gas coming in. Regardless of where Europe gets its natural gas...
Summary The Fed has made abundantly clear that it will tighten monetary policy until inflation is virtually vanquished. And yet, those who have no choice but to be nearly fully invested at all times have completely ignored this fact and were left trying to convince the investing p...
Summary With the Fed draining $95 billion in liquidity from the banking system as it accelerates QT, things could go from bad to worse, although bearish sentiment is increasing and the market is getting very oversold. There are still areas of the market that are worth considering,...
Summary The August US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by S&P Global came in at 43.7%, down from the final July estimate of 47.3 and in contraction territory. August saw the US economy slide into a steepening downturn, underscoring the rising risk of a deepening r...
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2024-01-18 02:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2023-12-02 12:15:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...