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By Jonathan Liss The spark for today's conversation was an article that my guest, Victor Haghani , posted to Seeking Alpha back on July 18 of this year titled Smart Beta: The Good, The Bad, And The Muddy . In it Victor helped crystallize some of the issues I myself have been s...
Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings. The earnings outlook for the S&P 500 has weakened since ...
For a week where the full U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted as stock prices were quite volatile, the week didn't end all that much differently than the previous week did . By the end of the week, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) was about one percentage point lower than a week earlier, as ...
About 10% of the S&P 500 will report next week, and 24 of those 52 scheduled reports will be Financial companies. Here is the S&P 500 Earnings data by the numbers: (Source: IBES by Refinitiv) Fwd 4-qtr est: $174.68 vs. $174.87 from last week PE ratio: 17.25x PEG ...
In this article, I will discuss our expectations and price targets for an overall correction in the S&P 500 over the coming months. Until recently, we were viewing the rise up from Christmas 2018 low in the S&P 500 as a B wave of a larger correction that would result in a move down t...
Dr. David Kelly and his team at JPMorgan put together - each quarter - one of the best capital market, economic and portfolio management summaries on the Street in the form of JPMorgan's "Guide to the Market". This valuation table is typically found in the first 10 pages of "The Guide". Here...
But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one. - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500. Traditional stock market models suf...
We are presently in "the dead zone" of earnings reports and revisions, as - according to IBES by Refinitiv data - there were just 517 revisions to analyst estimates this week versus the 2,300 odd changes to estimates during the usual peak week of the quarter, which in the second quarter of 201...
This morning's Empire Report notwithstanding, (the weakest since June 2011 per Bespoke), while the market sentiment has firmly tilted to the bearish camp, "market breadth" is one reason to remain firmly rooted in the bullish camp. Here are two graphs from "The Bespoke Report" over the weeken...
By David Aurelio As the S&P 500's 19Q1 earnings season enters the final stretch, Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO) delivered a heavy blow to the Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment industry when it reported revenue below expectations and provided a cautionary warning related to U.S.-China t...