DHL Group: Neutral Stance Reaffirmed Amid Volume And FCF Pressures

2025-09-23 23:42:09 ET

We return to DHL Group ([[DPSTF]], [[DHLGY]]) with the confirmation that our previously assigned Neutral stance has been validated so far (Fig. 1). In fact, the stock delivered a flat performance over the period, markedly lagging the S&P 500's 16.55% gain. Our Neutral view was supported by: 1) signs of an EU economic slowdown, especially in Germany, 2) no visibility on trade and tariffs (USA accounts for 20% of DHL's turnover), 3) valuation aligned with the historical average despite lower profits, and 4) DHL's January 2025 share price gains appeared driven more by broader macroeconomic developments than by company-specific catalysts....

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