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Summary As has been the case in recent weeks, the stock market finds itself in a position where various technical factors, market internals, positioning and sentiment are suggesting this sell-off may be overdone and a short-covering rally due. While the ‘pain trade’ ...
Summary An imminent recession is predicted by Bloomberg probability models that now forecast a 100% likelihood of a US recession hitting by October 2023, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update. Record rate hikes in 2022 have rendered the most negative 10-year...
Summary During the first nine months of 2022, the S&P 500 lost a quarter of its value, while the Nasdaq fell by a third. So, are equities now undervalued? To be certain, the ratio of the S&P 500’s market cap to GDP has fallen from 180% to around 140%. By this measur...
Summary Greenspan activist monetary policies were upped by Bernanke's "Wealth Effect". The Fed's balance sheet has expanded tenfold since the financial crisis of 2008. We have come full circle, back to fighting inflation. With 8% inflation, 4% interest rates still look hig...
Summary PPI and CPI numbers came out last week, and both were higher than expected. Fed officials are concerned about the persistence of high inflation, and a 0.75% key interest rate hike at the November FOMC meeting is virtually certain. Worldwide demand for crude oil naturally r...
Summary Is the market bottom in sight? Coming recession. How deep? How long? Amid market chaos, where are the bright spots? The S&P 500 has given back all of the gains we saw in the summer, and more. Is the market bottom in sight? And where are things going from ...
Summary Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn’t surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain that is his plan. Sto...
Summary The Russian Blitzkrieg in Ukraine failed. It sparked concerns over the threat of weapons of mass destruction. We analyze the effects of such escalations on the market. During the Iraqi Invasion in Kuwait, the world was worried that chemical weapons could have been deployed...
Summary We’re underweight government bonds because yields have room to move higher, and we don’t think they can be a safe haven when recession comes. Stocks were choppy and short-term U.S. Treasury yields jumped after data showed persistent U.S. core inflation. We th...
Summary The S&P 500 dropped by a whopping 20% from its mid-August top two months ago. However, now that stock prices are much lower and the November Fed move is priced in, stocks may have another significant countertrend rally in the coming weeks. Moreover, big banks are c...
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2024-06-21 02:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-30 17:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-22 01:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...