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Last week's bear market rally ranks #51 out of 3,781 weeks since 1950. That puts it in the top 1.3% of all weeks over the past 72 years. It followed on the heels of another strong week less than a month ago. The rally-sellers have gone AWOL, at least for now. The bottom ma...
The pendulum of market sentiment swings dramatically. It has swung from nearly everyone and their sister complaining that the Federal Reserve was lagging behind the surge in prices to fear of a recession. In addition to the tightening of monetary policy and the roughly halving of the ...
Stagflation: What it means and why it matters? While employment remains relatively robust, there are growing concerns about the potential risk of stagflation. Can the global economy avoid stagflation? For further details see: Weighing The Risk Of Stagflation And What It ...
Jumping 6.4%, the S&P 500 more than recovered the previous week’s big loss. There is certainly a short squeeze element to the rally. The ECB’s emergency meeting to address mounting “fragmentation” risk reversed the intense deleveraging dynamics that...
The first five months of the year marked the worst start for the S&P 500 since 1970 ― and the sixth worst back to 1928. Stock valuations have come down, but company earnings remain solid. Earnings will slow, but 20% is hard to imagine, even in a recession. For fur...
The S&P 500 Index closed up 6.33% for the week ending June 24, 2022. This week's 6+% return is the third week this year where the S&P 500 Index generated a return over 6%. There was no week in 2021 that had a return over 6%. Has the bear market bottom been reached and what...
With a 75-basis point rate hike at its June 15 meeting, the Fed intended to send a very clear message to markets: it is serious about bringing inflation down. In the aggressive tightening scenario, we think the Fed will front-load interest rate increases - aiming for a higher terminal...
The second quarter (2022) in the American stock market has been one volatile mess. The housing story is deteriorating, so we could really conclude that this has been a broadly correctional period covering all kinds of asset classes. We don't see a massive deterioration in earnings...
Inflation continues to surge in Canada, with May’s CPI climbing 7.7% on a year-over-year basis—up from an already-high reading of 6.8% in April. In the UK, consumer prices rose 9.1% in May on a year-over-year basis, which marked a 0.1% increase from April’s elevat...
Recessions have gone from being a potential consequence of high inflation and rapid monetary tightening to an increasingly likely scenario. A wrath of economic indicators are expected to confirm the trend of weakening business activity. The gas stand-off with Russia isn’t e...
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