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2023-10-14 03:55:00 ET Summary The risk of a crisis event in the economy is increasing, as the Fed’s "higher for longer" narrative is compromised by lagging economic data. The yield curve inversions occur roughly 10-24 months before a recession or crisis event. This is beca...
2023-10-13 04:00:00 ET Summary In the US economy, there’s been quite a bit of optimistic chatter focused on this idea of a soft landing. When you think about investing and mountain climbing, they’re both judged by the ability to move higher. Dividend growers tend...
2023-10-12 22:25:00 ET Summary Headline CPI came in at 3.7% today, but it’s at 2%, right on target, when you exclude shelter alone. This is pretty crucial in the broader context of what’s happening today because shelter is still running at 7.1% in the CPI when we kno...
2023-10-11 10:15:00 ET Summary Inflationary pressures will likely be higher going forward than they’ve been over the past two decades. Higher real interest rates are necessary in such an environment to keep inflation at target. Higher real interest rates put pressure on bot...
2023-10-11 01:05:00 ET Summary Over the past 12 months industrial production has been flat and the ISM Manufacturing Report has been warning of imminent recession. Despite the warnings from reliable leading indicators, the dominant view now is that there will be a “soft lan...
2023-10-10 01:03:00 ET Summary It’s hard to blame the bulls for their good cheer of late. Spiking inflation no longer dominates the headlines even as the U.S. economy has rebounded toward its long-term trend. Meanwhile, the labor market has started to ease (perhaps reducing...
2023-10-06 10:00:00 ET Summary Just when you thought it was safe to assume that the soft-landing fix was in, the bond market has thrown a wrench into the machine. Reading the latest headlines suggests that a recession in the near term is once again a high, or at least higher, risk...
2023-10-06 05:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2023-10-02 06:00:00 ET Summary Even if we have a recession soon, we don't have to have another bear market. Cash investments like T-bills are paying well right now but historically, today's rates are just a little above average. Both the 10-year Treasury yield and the dollar r...
2023-09-29 07:30:00 ET Summary The combination of easing inflation and a cooling labor market has fueled “soft landing” hopes among economists and Federal Reserve officials. Economic growth, the labor market, and consumer spending proved unexpectedly resilient despit...
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