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2023-12-20 04:57:00 ET Summary Some FOMC members saw two cuts, some saw four – based on dot plots – so three, more or less, marks the middle. Emerging markets have lagged developed markets quite dramatically as the U.S. dollar has rallied, along with the Fed’s...
2023-12-20 03:08:00 ET Summary In recent years, investors prospered by selling stocks and going to cash in early 2019, avoiding the eventual market downturn and recession in 2020. Since November, the run-up in asset prices has been stunning. Such is particularly the case given the...
2023-12-15 10:40:00 ET Summary Unemployment fell to 3.6% in March 2022. Now it’s 3.7%. If it’s still relatively low in March 2025, and if inflation has fallen close to the Fed’s 2% target, then the US will have achieved its first ever soft landing. In the ...
2023-12-15 09:25:00 ET Summary Despite indicators suggesting recessionary risks, the financial markets surged roughly 20% to date. The result of the increase in wealth effect has been a sustained improvement in consumer confidence, which supports economic growth. Given the unc...
2023-12-12 11:56:00 ET Summary The probability the U.S. economy will experience an official period of recession sometime in the next twelve months continued to recede during the past six weeks, currently standing at 67%. The probability peaked at 80.8% on 25 July 2023, just before...
2023-12-08 02:30:00 ET Summary Recent US inflation data shows that core PCE is close to the Fed's 2% target, indicating that the Fed may be done with its hiking cycle. The peak in the 10-year Treasury may have already been reached, with a 70 basis point decline in November. Th...
2023-12-06 22:50:00 ET Summary The US was supposed to be in recession by now, according to numerous forecasts from early in 2023. GDP surged in the third quarter, dealing a body blow to expectations that a downturn was imminent. The latest narrative making the rounds: the weak...
2023-12-05 03:04:00 ET Summary Has inflation been tamed? Maybe not. Why the Canadian and U.S. economies are moving in different directions. Can Canada avoid a recession? Recent economic data has signaled so-called “sticky” inflation may be showing sig...
2023-12-02 08:10:00 ET Summary Invesco's 2024 Investment Outlook discusses the balancing act between controlling inflation and preventing economic deterioration. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates by the end of the first half of 2024. Investors sho...
2023-12-01 08:25:00 ET Summary Wall Street economists predict a "soft landing" or no recession in 2024, despite recessionary indicators suggesting otherwise. The yield curve inversion is a warning sign of a recession, with the un-inversion marking the start of the recession. O...
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