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2023-10-31 10:00:26 ET Summary A key indicator based on surveys of newsletter writers suggests the end of the bear market in bonds is just around the corner. But the transition from a bear to a bull market may not be simple. It could occur through a brief, powerful selling climax,...
2023-10-31 07:30:00 ET Summary Fed week this week and the ritual continues. Armageddon continues on hold, rebuffed by continuing good economic and earnings reports. A few words about inflation. If you believe the Fed’s rhetoric, the 10-year US Treasury note near 5% ...
2023-10-31 06:04:13 ET The U.S. Treasury lowered its federal borrowing estimate for the current quarter on higher revenue expectations, potentially offering reprieve amid fiscal deficit concerns. However, this would still be a record amount of borrowing compared to prior fourth qu...
2023-10-31 03:25:00 ET Summary I find it fascinating that for the first full year of inflation, 2021-2022, markets did not price in any interest rate rise at all. When the Fed finally did start to raise rates, amid raging inflation, the market even more curiously thought the rate ...
2023-10-31 00:30:00 ET Summary By themselves, Treasury yields spiking out of control can cause a recession, and October delivered both a 5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 8% fixed-rate mortgages. We have gotten into a situation where the avalanche of Treasury issuance (due to...
2023-10-30 21:20:00 ET Summary Larger-than-expected Treasury issuance could lead to worsening budget deficit concerns. Nikkei reported that BOJ is considering a further adjustment to its YCC framework. FOMC expected to keep rates on hold and maintain a tightening bias. ...
2023-10-30 19:40:00 ET Summary The problems we face today, from wars to inflation to dysfunctional politics, are serious but they are no more serious than those we’ve faced in the past. Stocks have performed poorly but the underlying driver of stock prices – earnings...
2023-10-30 15:25:00 ET Summary Tectonic shifts in the U.S. financial sector are changing the markets for deposits and credit. This is a mega force we see affecting returns now and in the future. U.S. stocks hit five-month lows and 10-year Treasury yields rose above 5% last week. Q...
2023-10-30 12:45:00 ET Summary The US Treasury refunding announcement at 2 PM central today has suddenly become a big deal. The budget deficit is much larger than expected in 2023. The Street is still populated with forecasts for a 6-7% 10-year yield, which would leave much of...
2023-10-30 07:45:20 ET This week's FOMC announcement on interest rates would typically be the big-name event for investors, but not this time around. While a Fed hike in December is up for debate, no one expects the central bank to raise rates this week, especially given recent economic dat...
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2024-07-31 04:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 02:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 04:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...