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2023-11-15 01:31:00 ET Summary Market rates have likely peaked. The 10yr hit 5% and the 2yr got to 5.25% in the past month or so. A move back toward 5% is not improbable for the 10yr, but it's more likely that we've morphed into a structural decline in market rates, and a stee...
2023-11-14 20:20:00 ET Summary Tuesday’s CPI report was a huge relief for the Federal Reserve and their fight against inflation. Headline CPI came in at 3.2% and core inflation came in at 4%. The details showed a broad slowdown in the positive rate of change in prices, whic...
2023-11-14 15:30:00 ET Summary AIER Everyday Price Index fell 0.49% in October 2023, the largest decline since December 2022. The October inflation release provides a welcome respite from resurgent price increases over the past few months. While the most recent CPI and EPI dat...
2023-11-14 15:12:00 ET Summary U.S. real personal consumption has held up well in the face of higher interest rates because jobs kept growing. Inflation has receded in virtually every category, although shelter is coming down more slowly due to the confusing and lagged calculation...
2023-11-14 12:30:00 ET Summary In my opinion, last week’s comments from the Federal Reserve Chair were performative and don’t change anything in terms of my outlook. Central banks are focused on ensuring that longer-term inflation expectations - not shorter-term ones...
2023-11-14 06:51:00 ET Summary In the context of fighting inflation, the “final mile” represents the successful and sustainable achievement of a central bank’s inflation target. Perhaps the biggest surprise in macroeconomics this year has been the resilience o...
2023-11-14 06:10:00 ET Summary We see artificial intelligence (AI) as a mega force shaping the new regime. We are overweight the AI theme in developed market stocks. U.S. stocks and 10-year Treasury yields both rose last week. We see investors demanding more compensation for the r...
2023-11-14 01:11:00 ET Summary I think the trimming or revising of lower forward growth estimates is a reflection of the FOMC policy. Crude oil and gasoline have fallen sharply in the last 6 weeks. High-yield credit spreads actually tightened a little this week, as did high-gr...
2023-11-13 19:15:00 ET Summary Bond prices fluctuated in a pretty wide range last week of about 18 basis points but the MOVE index has been rising since bond yields started rising in August 2021. There is, of course, considerable worry presently about the debt of the US government...
2023-11-13 15:08:00 ET Summary Over the past four months, yields have risen dramatically in response to better-than-expected economic numbers but have cooled in the last week or so. Although the Fed is going to be higher for longer, they want to see what all of their hiking has do...
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2024-07-11 02:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 04:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-10 14:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...