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AIER's Business Cycle Conditions Leading Indicators index held steady at 75 in December. The latest result was the fourth month in a row with the index coming in above the neutral 50 threshold. The recent run of favorable results for the Leading Indicators Index reflects the ongoing r...
With 2021 already off to a good start, with the market up almost 2% in January, such is an excellent time to review our "investor resolutions." Considering that trying to predict the markets more than just a few days in advance is mostly an exercise in "folly," it is nonetheless a tra...
Investors are currently willing to pay a valuation premium for mega-cap tech stocks due to their size and safety in terms of high profit margins and strong balance sheets. However, the opposite side of this coin is that there has been a reliable tendency for companies to suffer from c...
At the end of 2019, before anyone outside Wuhan had heard of the new coronavirus, the leading indicators we track pointed to a 60% probability of the US economy entering recession during the first half of 2020 and an 80% probability of the US economy entering recession before the end of 2...
At the start of the new year, there is an almost irresistible urge to make predictions. Everybody wants to know what will happen next. Ending the pandemic is key to getting the consumer economy back to the pre-2020 normal. We feel confident that this will happen by the end of 2021. ...
It was a close call, but Santa finally delivered with a strong rally this past week, pushing the markets to all-time highs. Markets quickly dismissed concerns of higher taxes by justifying it with more stimulus and more significant deficits. In other words, "buy everything in sigh...
The new Covid outbreak, social restrictions, business closures, and lockdowns render most of the upcoming data mostly irrelevant. Market measures of US inflation expectations have risen, and the Democratic Party securing the Senate (50/50 but the Vice President breaks ties) has booste...
ADP let the cat of the bag on Wednesday when the payroll processing provider announced it believed the level of private employment had declined in December 2020. Since it wasn't likely to have been wildly inaccurate, it set the stage for a renewed negative number in the main governmen...
U.S. nonfarm payrolls lost 140,000 jobs in December, the first monthly decline since the historic, shutdown-driven plunges in March and April. The latest decline brings the eight-month post-plunge recovery to 12.32 million and is far from offsetting the 22.16 million loss in March and...
This is the most difficult year in many decades to write one of these. Never before have both the macro and finance environments been so exceptional. The biggest unknown for 2021 is what happens to the giant household savings bubble. There are a very wide range of possible outcomes ba...
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2024-05-20 17:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-10 17:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-21 04:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...