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By Jerry Wagner A quantitative money management firm is all about indicators - indicators for the stock, bond, and gold markets, usually. These indicators are tactical in nature - that is, they tell you when to be invested in the asset and when not to be. For some reason, February has al...
By Ansh Chaudhary Last month was the best January for U.S. equity markets in over 30 years. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe investors who sat out during January likely missed a bulk of the returns for the year. Although strategists don't expect markets to retest the December 2018 lows,...
By Jill Mislinski Note: We've updated the charts below based on monthly data through January. Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&...
One of my favorite things to think about in investing is the theoretical investor who slept through 1987. We all know about "Black Monday", the crash of 1987, when stocks fell 23% in one day. It was terrifying. But the craziest thing about 1987 is that the S&P 500 had a total return of 5.8...
Stocks have been reacting very positively to their earnings reports so far this season. As shown below, the average stock that has reported earnings this season (since January 10th) has gained 1.12% on its earnings reaction day. Earnings season is still not even halfway complete, but if these ...
On December 25th, I penned "My Christmas Wish" wherein I stated that is was "now or never" for the bulls to make a stand. "If we take a look back at the markets over the last 20-years, we find that our weekly composite technical gauge has only reached this level of an oversold cond...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) rebounded to an annualized 4.5% in January after slipping to 4.2% at the end of 2018 . Today's revised estimate for GMI (an unmanaged market value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes except cash) represents th...
Why stop at owning every single company that exists on Earth when you can own so, so many more? It's easy to do: simply invest in mutual funds and ETFs. According to Statista.com, there were 114,131 mutual funds worldwide in 2017 ( total mutual funds worldwide) and 4,535 ETFs ( total ETFs w...
One of the more amusing things about Q4 2018 was the extent to which market participants fell victim to a series of narratives that, ultimately, were the product of a confused perspective - a kind of fata morgana . The "imminent US recession" story became the predominant market meme startin...
The US petroleum report, called "This Week In Petroleum", comes out every week on Wednesday. It gives us very real time information about the state of US petroleum production and usage. I find this report useful for it provides us year-over-year comparisons in demand that may give us a hint ab...