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What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. Things are about to get real We're getting close to finding some answers to the important questions that investors have been struggling with for more than a year. Will the economy tip over into a recession? Will the stock ma...
The global stock market drop in the third quarter of 2018 was sharp and quick. In North America, the S&P 500 and TSX 60 fell 18 and 15 percent, respectively, in just 60 trading days between October 1 and December 24th. Both then rebounded some 14% in the 25 and 28 trading days that followe...
Several recent releases of various investor sentiment reports show an improvement in overall investor sentiment. In late December, I noted a number of the sentiment measures were indicating extreme fear on the part of investors. Since my December post, both sentiment and the equity market ha...
By Robert Hughes The U.S. trade deficit decreased slightly in November, falling to $49.3 billion. The narrower deficit reflects a smaller deficit for trade in goods ($71.6 billion deficit vs. $78.3 billion in October) and a smaller surplus in services ($22.3 billion versus $22.6 billion in...
AAII released its weekly survey of individual investors on Thursday with a sizeable uptick in bullish sentiment. Last week, bulls and bears were dead even at 31.8%, but this week the bullish camp rose to 39.87%. A portion of this boost in optimism likely came from the more dovish and clear t...
Debt is rising more quickly in the United States than most people would prefer. This is happening in part because the U.S. current account deficit and the country's high level of income inequality distort the structure and amount of American savings. Many Americans are worried about the se...
Introduction Now that enough indicators have turned so that I have begun a “recession watch,” what does that mean? Look for persistence and confirmation Since, by definition, long leading indicators tend to turn at peaks at least one year before the top of the economic peak...
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more ...
The end of 2018 saw the S&P 500 Index return decline over 13%, as seen in the first chart below. The second chart shows the snapback in the market that has rewarded investors at the start of 2019, with the price-only return of the S&P 500 Index up nearly 9%. In spite of the strong re...
By Jerry Wagner A quantitative money management firm is all about indicators - indicators for the stock, bond, and gold markets, usually. These indicators are tactical in nature - that is, they tell you when to be invested in the asset and when not to be. For some reason, February has al...