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The purpose of this article is to assess the macro-fiscal flows for December 2018 and determine what effect these flows will have on the stock market and the economy. Macro fiscal flows impact investment markets with a lagged effect of typically one month. A flush of funds now from governmen...
Today, the Washington Post featured a piece that highlights what we at Tematica have been saying for months and is highlighted in our Middle-Class Squeeze investment theme. All is not well in many American households at a time when unemployment is at a 50-year low, there are more job openings ...
Introduction It turns out that the recent brouhaha about how the tax law changes are affecting refunds may have a substantial effect on consumer spending. The estimated total decline in the amount of refunds is about -0.4% of annual retail sales Here’s the math: according to CNN ...
We're way overdue for a sell-everything recession, one that the Fed will only make worse by pursuing its usual policies of lowering interest rates and goosing easy money. As I noted last week, central banks, like generals, always fight the last war - until the war is lost. The global eco...
By Bruce Blythe At a Glance E-mini Nasdaq futures trading soared to new highs amid recent tech-stock volatility. Consumers have sunk their teeth into the four companies behind the so-called FANG stocks. The same could be said about traders and a futures contract, CME Group ...
In November 2018, the year-over-year growth rate of the value of goods imported by the U.S. from China dropped into negative territory. That observation comes from our analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau's report on the U.S.'s trade in goods with China, which had been delayed for over a mon...
For a moment during the first week of February 2019, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) looked like it might fully break out of the range described by our redzone forecast, but alas, it only poked just above the upper end of the range for a few days before dropping back into it. Had the S&P 50...
We've enjoyed years of "recovery" since the Great Financial Crisis by literally papering over our problems with newly-printed money, instead of addressing their root causes. But we've now arrived at the awkward part of the story; when all of our prior mistakes finally catch up with us, and t...
What happened last week. What we're watching for next week. Things are about to get real We're getting close to finding some answers to the important questions that investors have been struggling with for more than a year. Will the economy tip over into a recession? Will the stock ma...