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Editor's note: This article was originally published on March 1, 2019 by James Hamilton here . The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. That's below the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the...
My piece last week, " Another Great Trade You've Probably Never Heard Of ," generated a fair number of page views, comments, and emails. Since there seems to be a lot of interest, I'd like to expand on some of the ideas and show more of how you can implement it, with some more explanations and...
The U.S. says it will delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods and that a trade deal between the two largest economies in the world could be coming soon. What could this mean for investors and the markets? Kim Parlee talks to Jacky He, Client Portfolio Manager, TD Asset Read mo...
By Robert Hughes Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, down from a 3.4 percent pace in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Measured from fourth quarter 2017 to fourth quarter 2018, real GDP increased 3.1 percen...
By SchiffGold After weeks of hinting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the central bank will end its balance sheet reduction program this year. This just five months after insisting quantitative tightening was on "autopilot." "We've worked out, I think, the framework...
A month behind schedule, Q4 GDP sure did disappoint. I don't mean that it was disastrously weak, rather it came in right down the middle, benefiting neither camp. The BEA's not preliminary but not quite second revised GDP estimate for Q4 2018 was 2.55617% (seasonally adjusted compounded annual...
Jobless claims on a seasonally adjusted basis came in higher once again this week, rising to 225K from an upwardly revised 217K last week. This is right in the middle of the range that claims have been at for much of the past year. The streak of weeks below 300K now stands at 208, so the indic...
With the majority of corporations having reported, Standard & Poor's is estimating profits will be $155.56 per share for the full year. Some believe that when the earnings season is complete, profits will be at about $160 per share. At any rate, the $155 represents a 20% increase from 2017...
Introduction Initial jobless claims are an important short leading indicator, typically turning up 3-9 months before a recession. A problem is the necessity of filtering out signal from noise. There are two ways I measure claims in order to do so: (1) how much has the less noisy four-week av...
By Ansh Chaudhary After the market experienced its worst-performing December since the Great Depression, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index have started this year with historic rallies. According to CNBC , "This is the first time since 1964 that the Dow has ...