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Summary We outline four different paths for EUR/SEK in 2023 based on developments in four key areas: global risk sentiment, Europe’s economic performance/energy prices, Riksbank-ECB policy divergence and Sweden's domestic economy. Our baseline scenario is moderately bearish for E...
Summary The US dollar is mostly softer today against the G10 currencies, with the notable exceptions of yen, Swiss franc, and sterling. The yen has fallen by about 1.3% this week, leading losers, while sterling's 1.1% gain puts it at the top. Risk appetites returned and most of the ...
Summary Bad economic news weighed on US stocks. US futures point the possibility of a gap lower opening today. Europe's STOXX 600 is off 1.2%, the most since mid-December, which gives back this week's gains and stops the six-day advance. The euro made a marginal new high since April...
Summary The BOJ defied speculation and stuck to its current policy, which saw the yen sell off sharply. The dollar rallied about 3.4 yen before falling back. The greenback is broadly lower against the other G10 currencies. Euro has stalled around $1.0870 for the fifth consecutive se...
Summary The general tone in the greenback today is one of consolidation, with a modest risk-off bias. The yuan has seen its largest two-day retreat in a couple of months. While Japanese stocks advanced, China, Hong Kong, and South Korean equities slipped lower. Europe's STOXX 60...
Summary Stocks and bonds rallied as the Fed’s Whip Inflation Now project seems to be finally bearing some fruit. The slowdown in goods spending over the last year has been modest but entirely expected and offset by a rise in services spending. The Fed has spent the last year ...
Summary Rumors of an emergency BOJ meeting sent the dollar to its lows in Tokyo, slightly below the pre-weekend low (~JPY127.46). Although the PBOC continued to set the dollar’s reference rate near expectations, on Monday, the dollar closed higher against the yuan and above the p...
Summary A more benign environment than we were expecting means we're revising our 2023-2024 EUR/USD profile substantially higher. Returning to the issue of a substantial spread compression between USD and EUR short-term interest rates this year, we now argue that rate differentials will...
Summary The week ahead is chock full of economic data releases. While headline risk is associated with these economic reports, we suspect they will have little bearing on expectations of central bank policy. The adjustment of interest rate expectations for the Fed has gone as far as it ...
Summary Markets may be underestimating the stickiness of inflation and central banks’ determination to beat it - and what that means for growth and corporate earnings potential. We favor fixed income and credit over equities, and investment grade over high yield. Should infla...
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