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Summary The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain softer and the Swiss franc is virtually flat, but the other G10 currencies, led by sterling, are posting small gains. The news stream is light and conducive to the consolidative tone, but the dollar's recovery does not seem complete....
Summary Given the centrality of the US economy and rates, it is not simply a question for America, the Federal Reserve, and investors, but the implications are much broader. The Dollar Index is closing in on last month's high near 105.65. The market is continuing to game out the pos...
Summary The dollar appreciated against all the G10 currencies but the Swedish krona, which is still correcting higher after the hawkish pivot by the central bank. The downward revision in Germany's Q4 GDP has done the euro no favors. The single currency is a 15-20 pip range on either si...
Summary The prospect that the Fed’s tightening cycle continues into early Q3 is underpinning the greenback today against most of the G10 currencies. Most of the dollar block currencies are posting minor gains today, perhaps encouraged by the firmer equity markets. The euro has be...
Summary The European Central Bank's policy stance has become restrictive. To us, the impact on the economy is probably the most underestimated drag on growth for 2023. The good news is that we see no meaningful signs of fragmentation between countries, so monetary policy is not caus...
Summary The dollar was broadly higher in North America yesterday. Rising US rates and falling stocks are the main driver, and the FOMC minutes later today are the focus. Sterling, helped by its own surprisingly strong data, was the only G10 currency to have gained against the surging do...
Summary The dollar is broadly stronger. Sterling is a notable exception after a stronger-than-expected flash PMI and better-than-expected public finances. A slightly-better-than-expected preliminary PMI and hawkish minutes from the recent RBA meeting has done little to support the Austr...
Summary The dollar is mostly softer, but turnover is mostly quiet. The Swedish krona leads the move after higher-than-expected underlying inflation. In Asia-Pacific, China stood out with the CSI 300 up almost 2.5%. Europe’s STOXX 600 is up fractionally to recoup most of t...
Summary The pendulum of market sentiment swung from fear of a synchronized recession in the US and Europe to optimism that a recession can be avoided. The performance of the developed markets has held up better. We suspect the optimism about the eurozone's outlook is fragile. ...
Summary The greenback is extending its recovery today against all the major currencies, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars hit the hardest. Emerging market currencies have also been knocked back. The euro has fallen to $1.0630 today. Nearby support is seen around $1.0615, b...
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