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2023-03-14 07:40:00 ET Summary Despite some high-profile calls to the contrary, we suspect the Fed will still hike rates by 25 bp next week to signal a separation of systemic support and the conduct of monetary policy. The dollar has come back better bid today but generally consol...
2023-03-14 03:45:00 ET Summary The recent failure of two US banks, SVB and Signature, have understandably triggered a major re-appraisal of Fed tightening prospects. This has seen two-year EUR:USD swap rate differentials move to the narrowest levels since October 2021. One cou...
2023-03-13 23:52:00 ET Summary Inflation data support ongoing hawkish rhetoric at the ECB but financial stability risk has markets substantially re-price the path for policy rates lower. The risk of miscommunication is high at this meeting; our call for one last spike in rates bef...
2023-03-13 08:00:00 ET Summary The US banking crisis has overwhelmed other market drivers. The fear of a crisis that spurred a sharp drop in US rates ahead of the weekend pushed European rates sharply lower too. The US Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC have attempted to ring...
2023-03-11 10:06:00 ET Summary The US February CPI will be reported on March 14. The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt will deliver the spring budget on March 15. The year-over-year measure of CPI has slowed every month since last June when it peaked at 9.1%. We have been ...
2023-03-09 07:40:00 ET Summary The dollar remains firm but mostly consolidating today, ahead of tomorrow's employment report. Some position adjusting ahead of the conclusion of the BOJ's meeting is lifting the yen today, which is the best-performing G10 currency, gaining about 0.8...
2023-03-08 07:30:00 ET Summary Fed Chair Powell's comments to the Senate Banking Committee were seen as hawkish by the market. The greenback rallied following the comments. The euro fell through last month's low (~$1.0535), and our $1.0460 target is back into view. Sterling fe...
2023-03-07 07:20:00 ET Summary USD is trading with a firmer bias against nearly all the G10 currencies ahead of Powell's semi-annual testimony before Congress. The Australian dollar is the heaviest of the major currencies, falling around 0.8% to a new low for the year. Most EM...
2023-03-06 07:15:00 ET Summary The modest economic goals announced as China's National People's Congress starts appeared to weigh on Chinese stocks. Other large bourses in the region advanced, led by Japan's Nikkei and South Korea. Europe's STOXX 600 is little changed after ri...
2023-03-04 09:24:00 ET Summary The dollar peaked last September/October and trended lower until the January jobs report and strong service ISM on February 3. China reports trade and inflation gauges, but these reports do not often spark much movement in the closely managed exchang...
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