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Higher-than-expected US CPI numbers, coupled with strong comments from the Fed, saw a surge in interest rates, knocking stocks and lifting the dollar. Japanese markets were closed today, but most of the other equity markets in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell to pare this week's gains...
Asian equities have extended their recovery today, and Europe's Stoxx 600 is also up. US futures are trading lower ahead of the January CPI figure. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is posting small gains for the fourth consecutive session. The dovish hold by Sweden...
A pullback in yields is bolstering risk appetites today, lifting equities and weighing the greenback. Chinese officials warned against false price disclosure in the iron ore market. The EIA boosted its estimate for US oil production this year and next. For further details se...
Major central bank policies are diverging. Elevated exchange rate volatility may reflect the intensifying divergences. The U.S. Federal Reserve has provided guidance that it expects to end its asset purchases by March 2022, and then commence the process of increasing short-term intere...
The US and Japan struck a deal to lift the 2018 steel tariffs (25%) starting April 1. ECB President Lagarde seemed to move into damage control mode yesterday after her hawkish comments at last week's central bank meeting spurred the jump in European rates. The domestic protests ag...
Natural gas in Europe and the US is under pressure. China's markets re-opened today after last week's holiday. A flattening curve and a falling breakeven are what one would expect with a credible central bank policy. For further details see: European Rate Surge Continues...
As we begin 2022, several influential macro themes will be impacting the FX market. Inflation is the one to watch, as Lagarde has argued that the drivers of these pricing pressures were likely to fade over the medium term, which is the horizon that matters for monetary policy. Slo...
The global central bank community has been wrong on inflation. Euro zone inflation rose to a new record high last month, defying expectations for a big drop and piling pressure on the European Central Bank to finally admit that price growth is not as temporary and benign as it has lon...
The US premium is narrowing for the sixth session, and it is more than 30 bp tighter. The swaps market is pricing in about 10 bp of tightening by the ECB around mid-year. Elevated yields and firmer stocks helped the dollar extend yesterday's gains. The US dollar has forged a shelf...
The eurozone's unexpected rise in January CPI did not appear to change the swaps curve which has about 30 bp of higher rates discounted over the next 12 months. Europe's Stoxx 600 advance has stopped at three sessions. Information technology is the biggest drag, and the benchmark is o...
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