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While EUR/USD near 1.10 looks historically cheap, our Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate model actually suggests that EUR/USD is at least 9% overvalued in real terms. This is primarily due to a significant deterioration in the eurozone’s terms of trade induced by high energy...
The Fed funds rate has been increased 25bp, with Federal Reserve officials forecasting six additional hikes this year and the rate peaking at 2.8% next year. Geopolitical tensions create uncertainty, but the Fed feels the need to step on the accelerator. It increases the likelihoo...
Now, more than two-thirds of managers expect core inflation to stand between 2.5% and 3.5%. Managers sense the end of the deleveraging trend that was observed in 2021. Global leveraged managers believe that the upside remains limited, with no expectation of spread tightening. ...
Chinese officials confirmed the shift from structural reforms to supporting the economy and growth. Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia is considering allowing China to pay for its oil in yuan. Rising yields seem to be tarnishing gold. For further details see: China Reassu...
China reported stronger than expected data, but it did not prevent a further slide in mainland and Hong Kong shares today. The euro recovered from yesterday's brief foray below $1.09 to reach $1.1020 today. The US reports February producer prices today. The headline is expected to...
The U.S. ban on imports of Russian crude oil is effective immediately, while Britain said they will phase out Russian crude oil imports by the end of this year - meaning 9+ months of phased withdrawal. Europe is “hooked” on Russian energy, so Germany has come out against...
While the World Health Organization debates about downgrading Covid from a pandemic, the rise of China and Hong Kong cases is striking. Covid in China and Hong Kong adds to the risk of more supply chain disruptions. Iron ore is off 7%, falling for its fifth consecutive session. Co...
To minimize trading risk and grow capital during a global crisis is somewhat hinged on the answers to speculative questions. As of 03/08/22, YTD returns are: DJIA -10.20%, S&P 500 -12.49%, Nasdaq 100 -18.70%. The global currency market, otherwise known as Forex or FX, is the l...
The bond market has seen its safe-haven role tarnished. While Europe has taken many strong steps in the past couple of weeks, the new unity may not be limitless. Emerging market currencies are mostly heavier. For further details see: Limping Into The Weekend
US futures are around 0.5-0.8% lower, while the 10-year Treasury yield is off two basis points to around 1.93%. Russia seemingly out-of-the-blue accused Ukraine of housing chemical and biological warfare labs ostensibly for the US. The US dollar fell nearly 2.2% against the Mexica...
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