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There are not many months in which the dollar broadly appreciates 5% – but April was one of them. Given that the Fed tightening story has been a key driver of dollar strength since June 2021, it seems too early to call time on the dollar rally. April’s outsize move i...
The US 10-year yield is firm near 2.95%, while European benchmark yields have also firmed. The US dollar, which was sold hard yesterday has returned better bid today. Australia reported a larger than expected trade surplus of A$9.3 bln in March after A$7.4 bln in February. The pos...
The Fed has hiked 50bp and is formally starting quantitative tightening as it seeks to get a grip on inflation. The Fed acknowledges that "ongoing increases" will be required with Chair Jay Powell giving the green light to a series of 50bp+ rate hikes. We look for a 3.25% peak giv...
The map of the Asset Allocation Committee’s market views is a buzz of activity this quarter. Coming into 2022, we anticipated slower growth compared with the steep recovery levels of 2021 and inflation that was declining but persistent—and problematic due to its origins ...
With Japanese markets closed until Friday, the dollar is consolidating in a narrow range against the yen. The euro is holding above $1.05 today but is well below yesterday's $1.0580 high. There is near-universal consensus that the Federal Reserve will hike the Fed funds target to ...
Rather than care much about the Fed vs. ECB, maybe a better question to ask is this: why is the 4-week Treasury bill sitting there on May 2 yielding only 41 bps? It’s true the Fed is hiking rates more aggressively than the ECB in 2022, but not all rates are rising all that fast...
Expectations of tighter Fed policy and increased demand for safe-haven assets have pushed the U.S. dollar to multi-month highs. As central banks prepare to fight inflation, the U.S. dollar remains unchallenged against the euro and yen. Euro area inflation is now over 7%, yet the E...
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the market by delivering a larger than expected 25 bp rate hike to kick-off the tightening cycle to 0.35%. The UK's April manufacturing PMI was revised to 55.8 from a preliminary reading of 55.3. Canada's April manufacturing PMI disappointed...
The Scandinavian currencies are bearing the brunt of the greenback's gains, but the other major currencies are also a little heavier. Non-commercials in the futures market reduced the net long euro position for the second consecutive week through April 26. The US dollar staged a s...
The Federal Reserve has communicated its intent to bring the Fed funds rate to a neutral setting and maybe higher in recognition of the persistence of unacceptably high inflation. The European Central Bank will continue to buy bonds through June. The swaps market discounts a tightenin...
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