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This “inflation” is just the cover for the harmful redistribution of last year’s global supply shock (not money printing dollars). The global economy is clearly hitting the wall of the supply shock and reacting just as markets and curves have been pricing for well...
Our reading of the price action and the technical condition warns that the dollar's recovery is over. The ECB argues that fragmentation interferes with achieving its price stability objective. The greenback edged lower against the Chinese yuan last week. In the 15 weeks since the ...
The US dollar is trading with a lower bias against all the major currencies. China's recovery from the Covid lockdowns is spotty but sufficient to embolden investors and help Chinese stocks outperform lately. The Federal Reserve estimates trend growth, i.e., the non-inflationary p...
Aside from the Bank of Japan, major central banks are in a hurry to tighten financial conditions even as a cyclical slowdown weakens demand. The Bank of England hiked its base rate by 25 bp, but increased its inflation projection and warned of more forceful action if necessary. Th...
The mainland markets closed higher on the week. The Bank of Japan stood pat and recommitted to its yield-curve control and daily bond purchases, driving the yen sharply lower. Although Fed Chair Powell pushed back against any suggestion that the economy is fragile, the latest stri...
Despite firmer US Treasury yields, the dollar is trading heavily against the Japanese yen. The demand for sterling after yesterday's 1.5% gain has dried up. The Federal Reserve hiked the target rate by 75 bp and warned investors and businesses to be prepared for a bumpy landing. ...
The ECB is finally taking the measure of financial fragmentation risk in the eurozone. In addition to existing tools, it is working on a new instrument to prevent further widening of sovereign spreads. We'll await more details, but the announcement has likely changed the trajectory of...
Better-than-expected Chinese data and an unscheduled ECB meeting are the highlights ahead of the North American session that features the May US retail sales report and other high frequency data before the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Today's data dump showed that the Chinese economy ...
The markets' evolving expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy are not limited to the Federal Reserve. Rising global rates not only challenge the BOJ's efforts to cap the 10-year yield but are also weighing on the yen. The ECB net new bond buying will come to an end in a ...
The prospect of a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy has spurred a sharp sell-off in global equities and bonds and sent the dollar sharply higher. The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% in April. It was the second consecutive monthly contraction. The US dollar is exten...
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