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The US dollar enjoys a firmer bias against the major currencies ahead of the July employment data. Germany, France, and Spain report stronger-than-expected gains in June industrial output figures. There is no doubt that the US labor market momentum is slowing. Overview...
The Japanese yen and the euro have lost significantly against the US currency. The European Central Bank (ECB) is now slightly raising the prospect of a rate hike. Japan has had a negative trade balance since mid-2021: it pays more for imports than it earns for exports. ...
Strong gains in US equities yesterday and easing fears following Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan helped lift most Asia Pacific equities, with Hong Kong leading the way with a 2% rally. Unlike the Federal Reserve, for example, the BOE is likely to shrink its balance sheet through outri...
We have been bearish on EUR/USD this year, but not bearish enough. The war in Ukraine and what it has done to the eurozone’s terms of trade have damaged the euro’s equilibrium fair value. We are cutting our EUR/USD forecast by roughly 4-5% across our 2022-24 profile ...
The market is judging China's response to Speaker Pelosi's visit in a mild way and risk appetites returned. The 17 bp jump in the US 10-year yield yesterday helped lift the dollar from nearly two-month lows near JPY130.40. The euro posted key downside reversal yesterday (traded on...
Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has added to the risk-off mood of the capital markets today. Most of the large Asia Pacific equities sold off, with Australia and India being notable exceptions. Switzerland's July manufacturing PMI held up better than expected, slipping to 58.0 from 5...
The US dollar is softer against all the major currencies. Most emerging market currencies are firmer too, except for a few Asian currencies, the Russian rouble, and, of course, the Turkish lira. The dollar's pullback against the yen has been extended to almost JPY132.00. ...
China, Hong Kong, and Japanese equities fell but the other large markets in the region rose. The yen and Swiss franc lead the advancing major currencies today, but sterling, the Canadian and Australian dollars, and the euro have given up their early gains. Despite signs of a bumpe...
The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive 75 bp rate hike, and Chair Powell left the door open for another large hike at the next meeting in September. Australia reported softer-than-expected June retail sales on the heels of yesterday's slight miss on headline Q2 CPI. ...
The Fed met market expectations with a unanimous 75 basis-point hike. FOMC lifted the federal funds rate to the 2.25% to 2.50% range and will continue its balance sheet runoff. Fed updated its language to reflect recent economic data, stating that "indicators of spending and produ...
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