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Liquidity globally, from both Central Banks and Governments, has started reversing heading into 2022. Over the last decade, a reversal in Fed policy has repeatedly provided bond-buying opportunities. With the current Administration and the Treasury pushing the idea of more governm...
We are moving from the recovery phase of the current cycle to its middle phase. But what kind of cycle is it likely to be? After 40 years of declining inflation and interest rates, the direction of travel appears to be changing, due to new central bank policy priorities, China’...
The resolution of inflation and policy uncertainty is likely to be among the most important determinants of market performance over the next 12 months. Even before Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index release, we saw signs of the shockwave to come earlier in the week. Real yiel...
The latest headline inflation figure by the CPI measure was 6.2 percent, the highest level since October 1990. Core inflation was 4.6 percent, higher than at any time since 1991. The normal effect of inflation on bond yields is to send them higher. But that is not what is happening to...
For the quarter, equities posted negative returns, with the US being the exception where performance was slightly positive, while the fixed-income markets were mixed. A closer look at the broad equity markets reveals that year-to-date, it has delivered generally rising returns with so...
Fed leaves rates unchanged; announces timeline for tapering bond buying program. Colbourne: Fed's is giving themselves some wiggle room on inflation outlook. Colbourne: Markets expecting two Fed rate hikes next year. For further details see: Taper. Not Tantrum: No Big Ma...
Congress temporarily avoided a debt ceiling showdown in October. In 2011, Congress waited until the very last minute to increase the debt ceiling. There is no way to position portfolios for a U.S. default. For further details see: Debt Ceiling 2021: The Sequel
The major US equity indices moved in concert, but the big disappointment so far this year has been small caps. Energy is clearly where the action is this year. After spending years at the bottom of the tables, Natural Gas, Gasoline, and Crude Oil now lead the pack. For furth...
While the stock market (as defined by the cap-weighted S&P 500 index) is up, almost 70% of stocks are currently in an intermediate-term downtrend, all while new lows start to show up underneath the surface. More evidence is appearing that suggests inflation is becoming a problem, ...
Fixed-income markets are certainly different than they were 20 years ago—or even 10 years ago. There are many advantages to the evolution of fixed-income markets over the past decade or so. Investors are setting a high bar for their managers, and rightfully so. For fu...
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2024-07-17 13:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-18 05:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-07 23:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...