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Summary Today, the yield curve is more inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, so many are saying that means the chances of a recession are pretty high. Yes, today the curve is very inverted, but real yields are not particularly high. Low spreads suggest the market is relat...
Summary With all the recent optimism, the S&P 500 has hit a high around 4,100, and the VIX has come down to the 18-20 range. Unfortunately, this 18-20 level in the VIX is the range that bear market rallies die out at in this market. Also, the Fed's rate hike in about a week will...
Summary Market sentiment is shifting to a classic risk-off mode. Falling rates, a falling dollar, and falling oil suggest global growth concerns. This will have negative impacts on stocks as the fall rally comes to an end. Reality is setting in for the equity market as the fal...
Summary This would be the most highly anticipated recession on record, if it comes to pass next year. Yet the stock market has been resilient in the face of all the doom and gloom. We're currently resolving a short-term overbought condition in the S&P 500. The real test will...
Summary After some early weakness, US stocks padded their fall rally last month. Materials led the S&P 500 last month, while the consumer discretionary and energy sectors trailed the market. Amid a weakening US dollar, global stock benchmarks outperformed the US by a wide margin...
Summary Stocks are overbought and overvalued relative to bonds. Over the next year or so, the macro and liquidity environment suggest bonds will fare significantly better than stocks. The growth cycle is a headwind for stocks, but a tailwind for bonds. Institutions will continue to ...
Summary The S&P 500 (SPX) rallied nicely on the heels of what the market took as “dovish” comments from Fed Chair Powell on 11/30/22. The wrinkle in the fabric is that most of the gains are resulting from short covering, not real buyers, at least in the major indexes. ...
Summary Expectations surrounding central bank policy, China’s gradual reopening and a lower US dollar are key to investor sentiment in the final stretch of 2022. Central banks have increased interest rates at the fastest rate on record, and there are signs that higher yields are ...
Summary At least one of two things should happen to warn that an official US recession is about to begin. One is a decline in the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (NOI) to below 48 and the other is a reversal of the yield curve’s trend from flattening/inverting to steepening. ...
Summary Olga and Hugo review their predictions and explore what surprised them in 2022, focusing on GDP, interest rates, earnings growth, energy prices, and the dollar. Our forecast for nominal GDP incorporates expectations for both growth and inflation. We were on the right track by an...
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Invesco Announces Changes to its ETF Line-up PR Newswire Upgrades to existing ETFs reflect Invesco's consistent improvements to the investor experience ATLANTA , June 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Invesco Ltd. (NYSE: IVZ), a leading global asset manag...