Global Macro Outlook: First Quarter 2026

2026-01-09 09:45:00 ET

The Macro Picture

While the calendar will reset as 2025 turns into 2026, the global economy does not change just because the year does. Indeed, our outlook for the first part of 2026 is very little changed from what we saw in late 2025. We continue to believe that the global economy will expand in the coming months and quarters and, while that expansion may not be robust by historical standards, it should be sufficient to keep financial markets largely on track. The risks around our relatively benign base case seem to us to be fairly balanced: a meaningful acceleration is just about as likely as a meaningful deterioration....

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