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The yield curve is inverted from the 6-month T-bill to the 10-year Treasury note, which would suggest that the bond market’s message is “recession ahead, batten down the hatches”. Relatively tight risk spreads suggest that nobody is thinking too seriously about th...
We see company earnings deteriorating amid a rotation in consumer spending and a sputtering restart. This is partly why we remain cautious on stocks. Stocks jumped on hopes of the Fed pausing hikes soon as inflation edges lower. We think that’s premature and see inflation settl...
Almost every month this year, the “discounts” on financial assets from their year-end 2021 prices have gotten larger, leaving the S&P 500 with its worst first half-of-the-year return since 1962 (narrowly avoiding its worst first half since the Great Depression). Ther...
July was the highest revenue generating month of 2022. The US hard to borrow equity market pushes revenues higher. Fixed income continues to see strong demand. Corporate bonds are in for an impressive 2022. Global securities finance revenues totalled $1.215 bln, ...
It appears the U.S. economy may be falling into recession - the business cycle has not been eliminated. Valuations outside the U.S. continue to look relatively attractive versus the U.S., especially in Japan. Credit spreads rallied over the past month or so and are once again in l...
We prefer investment grade credit over equities right now. Our reasoning: valuations, strong balance sheets, low supply and moderate refinancing risks. U.S. data last week showed strong job creation but still low labor participation. Stocks lost steam and bond yields spiked as markets...
Whether the U.S. is actually in a recession is debatable, but high inflation will affect companies both positively and negatively. The release of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers late last month set off a debate around the state of the U.S. economy and whether it is curre...
Investment grade (IG) corporate debt funds broke their all-time calendar year records during their 2020 and 2021 campaign. While recent performance may be trending upward, year-to-date performance has been dismal. Credit spread increases, among other factors such as demand for Tre...
Given the weight of the evidence from the past decade of market performance, it makes sense that stocks should perform better if the Fed pivots from monetary tightening. The stock market continues to perform when the Fed is lifting interest rates. What is clear is that the time to...
In the housing market, activity levels have come down as rates - mortgage rates in particular - have moved higher and changed the dynamic around affordability. As rates have moved, investment-grade corporates are a longer-duration asset class that has really borne the brunt of higher ...
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2024-06-21 12:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-30 21:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-22 11:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...