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Given the sizeable skew in the distribution of outcomes toward negative real returns, it's extremely important to be selective in high-quality fixed income, and to be truly vested in one’s investments so that portfolios are not permanently impaired. In the short term, the commo...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market (GMI) ticked up in August, reaching an annualized 6.1%, slightly above the previous month’s estimate. Despite the comparatively high GMI forecast, the current estimate remains well below the index’s realized risk premium fo...
The winning streak for American shares rolled on in August. US stocks rose for a seventh straight month and posted the strongest gain for the major asset classes. US bonds also lost ground in August. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index slipped 0.2%, the first monthly decline for the be...
The option-adjusted-spread ((OAS)) on the investment grade or high-grade corporate bond index, is presently about 95-100 bps better than the equivalent Treasury. As of last Friday, August 27th, 2021, the BBB OAS was yielding about 104 bp’s over equivalent Treasuries, which shou...
The next Z.1 report comes out in late September, but will only bring the data up to June 30th. I use a pair of adjustments to adjust the share of assets invested in risk assets between releases. The share of funds model now rates the market as having the highest valuation since 1945. ...
GMI’s 10-year Sharpe ratio (SR) edged up for a fifth straight month to 0.86, the highest since January 2020, based on a rolling ten-year window via monthly data. Profiling GMI through a drawdown lens also reflects an extended stretch of low risk. GMI is useful as a baseline...
The projected risk premium for the Global Market held steady in July at an annualized 6.0%, unchanged from the previous month. Despite the recent bounce, GMI’s trailing 10-year performance remains well below the previous 8%-plus peak. No one really knows what risk premia wi...
Most of the major asset classes continued to rise in July, led by US real estate investment trusts (REITs). US equities continued trending higher. The bull run also persisted for the Global Market Index (GMI) in July. For further details see: Major Asset Classes: July 20...
We think inflation is likely to fall back, but we are more sensitive to upside risk than at the start of the year. Evidence of longer-term investment in more and more sectors continues to build. Flexibility and a tactical approach across the full range of credit markets has been a...
Recently, downticks in Treasury yields are being met with selling pressure in value indexes and stocks. The stock market can’t make up its mind. Does it want high yields or low yields? This confusion is because inflation numbers are rising and interest rates are falling, which ...
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2024-06-21 12:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-30 21:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-22 11:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...