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It’s been almost three years since the original Brexit referendum passed in a vote that stunned Europe. The British people voted to get out of the European Union, and we’re still waiting for it to happen nearly three years later. At the time of the vote, headlines were blaring Ar...
In late March, as global pessimism was renewed in the world's bond markets, ECB President Mario Draghi appeared as he always does to urge optimism. Yes, Europe's economy in particular didn't finish 2018 as he had been expecting. But a soft patch, Draghi said, wouldn't necessarily " foreshadow ...
Elga explains why politics pose the biggest risk to our base case that European growth should rebound in the second half of this year - and why the European Central Bank's perceived lack of policy options is also a concern. We expect eurozone growth to pick up in the second half of this ye...
Fog in the Channel - Europe isolated So goes an English BBC radio news statement in the 1930s - during the fading days of the British Empire - that showed the disdain the grand elites of Britain towards the minor beings living on the European mainland who had never enjoyed the superior way...
(Source: AZ Quotes , caption and editing by the Author, sagacity by T.S. Eliot) The true state, of what was referred to as "rotten" in the Eurozone, has become clear as elections for the top jobs commence. European Council President Donald Tusk, a Polish native, made it clear that Fra...
In only a few weeks, European leaders will have to decide on a new ECB President to replace the incumbent Mario Draghi, whose term expires in October. Draghi has been a radical ECB president, deftly playing a difficult political hand to win support for a EUR 2.5trn ECB balance sheet expansion....
How do you like me now? How do you like me now, Now that I'm on my way? Do you still think I'm crazy Standin' here today? - Toby Keith We are but three weeks out from a defining moment for the world. I remain convinced that most people, and financial institutions, do not un...
Sectoral balances can tell us so much about what is going on in an economy. Especially when they are expressed as a time series, as in this remarkable chart from the ECB : Although it is a time series, this is not a rate of change chart. The y axis is in billions of euros, not in percenta...
By David Zahn, CFA, Head of European Fixed Income, Senior Vice President, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group® Many observers are predicting that European elections later this month will usher a wave of populist representatives into the European Parliament. David Zahn, Head of Euro...
The euro area's manufacturing sector remained deep in decline at the start of the second quarter. Although the headline PMI rose for the first time in nine months, up from 47.5 to 47.9, the April reading was the second-lowest seen over the past six years, signalling a deterioration of overall ...