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The hope in an arranged marriage is that people marry, and then fall in love. Sometimes that works, other times it doesn't. Two decades after inception, the eurozone countries' arranged marriage-type of union looks shaky at best, and now it is even more challenged by ongoing, global disruptive...
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Quantitative Investment Strategist Dr. Kara Ng and Research Analyst Brian Yadao discussed the latest Brexit developments, optimism in the China-U.S. trade war and downside risks to markets in the months ahead. Johnson to suspend Parliam...
Looming recession and negative yields, it was about time some people would bring two and two together. Much of European yields are in negative territory, meaning that European governments can get paid to borrow. At the same time, much of Europe is teetering on the brink of recession, so here...
Scanning the global markets for value always makes me stop in Europe. Using the S&P 500 ([[SPY]]) as our reference, we get a P/E ratio of 20.84, a P/BV of 3.27, and a distribution yield of 1.56%. Table 1 - Portfolio characteristics of the S&P 500 ETF (Source: iShares ) Now, lo...
By Jeff Weniger The euro won't stop chopping sideways. Its quiet drift downward has persisted since spring 2018, but it would be a fool's errand to extrapolate boring action forever. The currency can snap violently, and I think the push will be southward. Figure 1: EURUSD There were ...
I am getting prepared, you see. September is just around the corner and it will be the last European Central Bank meeting presided over by Mario Draghi, the Superman of Europe. My sense is that it is going to be one last, "Whatever it takes," as virtually all of the economies of Europe are hav...
The European Economies It's not really valid to talk of a European economy, that being exactly the problem there is with the euro. Having the one currency means that monetary conditions must be the same across those different European economies. An example of this is that the UK economy seem...
By David F. Hoffman, CFA In June of 1984, I was a young portfolio manager finding myself at odds with the wisdom of the day. Yields on 30-year Treasuries had rebounded from 10% to 14% as inflation had bounced from 2.5% and was running at just over 4%. The leading sages of the day were very...
A central banker's nightmare is losing control of inflation expectations. Whereas decades ago, the challenge facing major central banks was reining in overly high inflation expectations - a process that ushered in central banks' independence and inflation targets - the European Central Bank's ...
By Peter Vanden Houte , Chief Economist Belgium, Eurozone Although the eurozone economy is rapidly losing momentum, growth in 2020 might be supported by a higher number of working days. While insufficient to reverse the slowdown, extra working days are likely to add 0.2 percentage po...