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The new Covid outbreak, social restrictions, business closures, and lockdowns render most of the upcoming data mostly irrelevant. Market measures of US inflation expectations have risen, and the Democratic Party securing the Senate (50/50 but the Vice President breaks ties) has booste...
Short-time work schemes do what's on the ticket. Broad measures of unemployment show strong recovery after lockdown 1. Is this first wave impact too good to be true? Unprecedented crisis - also for the labour market. For further details see: Eurozone: A Labour Market...
We share three key lessons we learned from 2020 – and how they inform our 2021 outlook. The UK and European Union agreed on a trade deal. The U.S. launched a new $900 billion fiscal package amid climbing Covid hospitalizations and deaths. This week’s U.S. nonfarm pay...
Prior to the pandemic, Europe was facing unique challenges, including keeping the bloc together amid rising populism, uneven economic growth, troubled banking systems, Brexit, and more. While the core of Europe was likely facing prospects of negative interest rates for an extended per...
Flash PMI survey data show the US expansion losing pace amid rising virus numbers, while looser lockdowns in Europe boosted the PMI data. Services remain hardest hit by containment measures, manufacturers report stronger growth. COVID-19 containment measures will likely continue t...
The December 2020 meeting of the European Central Bank focused once again on asset purchases and generous liquidity provisions to the financial sector instead of lowering policy rates further, in line with our longstanding view that the ECB is near the effective lower bound on the deposit...
December may normally be associated with everything slowing down as we ease our way into the festive period, but as with everything else in 2020, this is no normal December. Donald Trump is continuing to fight the election result and is going out swinging, Brexit talks are somehow sti...
Flash Eurozone PMI falls to lowest since May, adding to signs of fourth quarter downturn. Germany remains the brightest spot, led by manufacturing expansion. Job losses continue, though rate of decline holds steady. Selling prices fall, but manufacturers see upward pressure on...
Global markets embraced the removal of uncertainty surrounding the US elections, and many European leaders in particular welcomed a renewed relationship with the world’s largest economy under President-elect Joe Biden. Our Katrina Dudley and David Zahn discuss the implications ...
The initial estimate of eurozone GDP growth in Q3 far surpassed expectations. But renewed COVID-19 restrictions point to a sizeable GDP decline in Q4. Whether the eurozone can avoid another technical recession is uncertain at this point. Either way, the road back to pre-pandem...