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Hawkish soundbites and positive economic news dominate for the US, despite global growth concerns. Officials talking about tapering within a few months should help focus minds at the long end of the curve, despite a supportive technical backdrop for bonds. A glut of cash remains i...
The U.S. is passing the baton in leading the economic restart to other developed markets; but we see fresh challenges in many emerging markets. Better-than-expected U.S. jobs data drove U.S. 10-year bond yields to the highest level in two weeks. U.S. stocks hit record highs. China...
The continued flattening move in the rate market suggests no major change in market dynamics as the case for Fed tightening becomes increasingly convincing. More upbeat economic data this week, and hawkish soundbites, would only displace bond demand towards longer maturities. We m...
We see China’s regulatory crackdown that recently rattled markets likely to moderate, alongside a dovish shift in macro policy, for the near term. The Federal Reserve noted further progress in the economy as expected; we see a tapering of asset purchases unlikely to start befor...
This summer has seen a drop in a popular economic indicator: the slope of the yield curve. We look at the potential reasons for that and reckon that concerns, though legitimate, may be overstated. Wait until September to get a clearer read on the curve. For further details s...
As the world starts to recover from the pandemic, a range of factors are converging to create a new inflationary era. Crucially, the policy regime is changing, driven by the need to respond to emerging social and environmental challenges and help manage record peacetime debt levels. T...
Record low real yields across the world betray an exceptional degree of macro angst. Or do they? Don’t look at rates in isolation. Other markets are fine. The tide of central bank purchases lifts all boats, and normal liquidity conditions will only return at the end of the ...
We feel the ECB missed the mark by not making more explicit reference to asset purchases. In the new guidance as in the old, the end of purchases remains subordinated to the rates forward guidance. The upshot to yesterday’s ECB meeting is more purchases for longer, but dissent ...
Growth-oriented asset classes are likely to shine, but not equally. Above-trend growth is a supportive environment of risky assets like equities or credit. On valuation grounds, equities are looking a little cheaper. Geraldine Sundstrom and Erin Browne discuss PIMCO’s views...
Rate markets seem to have fallen through a rabbit hole into a fantasy world where every new bit of information points to lower growth. That the rally in rates, and associated curve flattening, is occurring at a time the phase of economic acceleration comes to an end can create a misle...