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Summary Equities rebounded in recent weeks as investors considered the prospects of a possible pivot by major central banks, especially after China’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. Similar to Europe, core inflation and services inflation are expected to rise ...
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.27 in July, with all four categories of indicators rising. The 3-month average was unchanged at -0.09. That indicates growth is slightly below trend and is far from the recession threshold of -0.7. The data in August so far has bee...
The yield curve is inverted from the 6-month T-bill to the 10-year Treasury note, which would suggest that the bond market’s message is “recession ahead, batten down the hatches”. Relatively tight risk spreads suggest that nobody is thinking too seriously about th...
There is no doubt Bullard has been one of the more hawkish voting members this year, emphasizing the need to front-load rate hikes and move aggressively in the process. The main difference is that rate hikes would not be aggressive to the point that they would have to be reversed in r...
Latest CPI might help sentiment, but inflation is still a problem. Why shelter inflation is creating a more complicated fight for the Fed. Softer CPI could mean the Fed avoids another jumbo rate hike, but rates are still going up. U.S. inflation data for July...
The debate whether the United States is in a recession or not highlights one of the problems with the ways that economists treat yield curve slopes: as a recession prediction indicator that apparently pops out of somewhere. The duration of a 10-year Treasury is longer than that of a 2...
It appears the U.S. economy may be falling into recession - the business cycle has not been eliminated. Valuations outside the U.S. continue to look relatively attractive versus the U.S., especially in Japan. Credit spreads rallied over the past month or so and are once again in l...
Compounding interpretation of the data now is the issue of the pandemic and the consequences of an ill-advised global economic shutdown. Some economists contend two quarters of negative GDP alone is not a sufficient indication of a recession. Certainly, some market sectors and ind...
Two economic reports from last week, attempting to measure essentially the same thing, reported results that were so different they could be about two different countries. The rising rate, rising dollar environment is intact. The 10 year Treasury rate is in a short-term downtrend but ...
Muni debt is mostly owned by tax-paying Americans, and their preferences determine the market prices of the debt. Trillions in derivatives are tied to Treasury debt structures and are part of global transactions that ignore the yield curve outlook and trade against the Treasury yield ...
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2024-07-01 14:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...