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Summary Global GDP growth is still expected to be positive in 2022 (excluding Russia) but is expected to fall fairly dramatically in 2023. The U.S. Q3 2022 earnings season has just begun, and the outlook is for lower but still positive revenue and earnings growth. Inflation wi...
Summary An imminent recession is predicted by Bloomberg probability models that now forecast a 100% likelihood of a US recession hitting by October 2023, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update. Record rate hikes in 2022 have rendered the most negative 10-year...
Summary We’re underweight government bonds because yields have room to move higher, and we don’t think they can be a safe haven when recession comes. Stocks were choppy and short-term U.S. Treasury yields jumped after data showed persistent U.S. core inflation. We th...
Summary U.S. recession risks are rising and stagflation may be poised for a comeback. A strong job market has kept us from entering such an environment, but recession risks are rising as the Federal Reserve has vowed to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to rein in inflation -...
Summary For the most part, 2022 has unfolded largely on script, with inflation proving stubborn and the Federal Reserve seeking to cut off the spigot. Despite the general monetary trend toward stiff tightening on a global basis, individual countries continue to initiate moves to s...
Summary Over the last two weeks Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. The big problem with the Fed’s plan to kill inflation by reducing economic growth and raising the unemployment rate is that t...
Summary The broadest measure of the bond market, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index, has returned -14.61% YTD through the end of the third quarter. All segments of the bond market have posted negative returns YTD. 2022 is shaping up to be the worst performance year in the 45-yea...
Summary Geopolitical tensions, elevated market volatility, and the fastest pace of central bank tightening in decades are contributing to an unusually uncertain economic environment. In addition to higher income potential, yields are high enough to provide the potential for capita...
Summary YTD, the S&P 500 is now down 24% while bonds have their own double-digit losses. Like stock valuations, currency valuations aren’t great timing tools but over a 3-year period after becoming undervalued, the outperformance is strong. Consumer defensive stocks...
Summary 2022 has been the worst year for bonds since 1976. Bonds are an attractive place to be. Investors can look to allocate across fixed income depending on their individual risk appetite. What the markets are looking at now is the pressure on corporate profitability. ...
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2024-07-01 14:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...