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Summary Recession is likely, but the unique characteristics of the previous pandemic-fueled recession wrung out many excesses. Inflation will come down, but not to the low levels experienced over the past few decades. Capital markets have re-priced assets in ways that create a...
Summary As tax-loss harvesting season begins in earnest, the main headline typically focuses on the selloff in global equity and fixed income markets, many of which are down well over 10% so far this year. However, for US-listed ETFs that hold international equities, returns are d...
Summary Fed's Powell remains hawkish on rates, despite dovish overtures in statement. The Fed reiterates its intension that rates will remain high until inflation is cracked. Why rates are going to be higher for longer, even after inflation comes down. Th...
Summary The closest thing to a guarantee in finance is the truism that recessions always follow Treasury bond yield inversions. The labor force is no longer expanding and may be shrinking. A recession in which the GDP shrinks by 1% for two quarters while employment remains sta...
Summary The global economy has been hit by several headwinds, almost all of them leading back to higher inflation. Europe is likely already in recession, the U.S. will enter recession in Q2 2023, while China struggles to make recovery headway. Markets have faced up to the reality ...
Summary Barclays Aggregate is down almost as much as the S&P 500 YTD. As of 10/31/22, the YTD return on high yield is far better than the return on corporate high-grade. There is relative value being created in the various bond market asset classes. Looking at th...
Summary Global bond markets have been rattled in 2022 by central banks’ aggressive policy pivot to address persistent inflation. The Fed is trying to drive economic growth lower and take the pressure off inflation by reducing demand through higher interest rates — an...
Summary The Fed is going to meet this week and the course of the stock and bond markets, at least for a while, will be determined by what is decided at the FOMC meeting. Household and corporate balance sheets are remarkably liquid. Financials, real estate, and industrials led ...
Summary The Fed’s next crisis is already brewing. The drawdown in bonds is the most important. The credit market is the lifeblood of the economy. If something is breaking in the Treasury market, it will likely be time to buy both stocks and long-dated Treasuries as the ...
Summary Money supply growth fell again in September, dropping to a 37-month low. Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions. Since January of this year, the Fed has raised the target federal funds rate from .2...
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2024-07-01 14:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...