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2023-03-16 23:56:00 ET Summary This week’s chart of the week shows how the standard credit cycle operates and the way the borrowing booms and busts across time. Credit risk isn’t just creeping up on us. It punched everyone in the face this week. And it is likely to g...
2023-03-14 06:20:00 ET Summary Recession indicators are concerning. Bank runs are particularly concerning. Certain companies may outperform in a recession. As negative economic and financial news piles up, there are increasing concerns about a potential upcoming rece...
2023-03-14 04:53:00 ET Summary Last Friday, the Labor Department revised both their December and January payroll reports by a total of 34,000 jobs, from 260,000 down to 239,000 in December, and from 517,000 down to 504,000 in January. So far, the Fed has been remarkably quiet abou...
2023-03-13 21:01:00 ET Summary You step from the Fed and then you look around the world, there is this uncertainty associated with where we are, with this inflationary environment that every country is dealing with. Certainly from a longer perspective, given sort of the post-GFC w...
2023-03-13 15:35:00 ET Summary One of the themes I’ve been discussing lately is how inflation risk has been evolving into credit risk. The banking bust we’re seeing now was sown during COVID. The COVID boom was the inevitable blow off top of the prior 10-year bull ma...
2023-03-09 16:53:00 ET Summary As US short-term rates have moved above 5 percent, longer-term Treasury bonds have rallied, causing their yields to fall. Even with lagging unemployment rates still near historic lows, households are behind on their debt payments by the most since 20...
2023-03-09 09:27:00 ET Summary The natural slope of the yield curve is positive, meaning short-term interest rates are lower than long-term interest rates. There are periods where the curve inverts and, most importantly, a recession has followed each time. The yield on the 2-y...
2023-03-09 05:00:00 ET Summary Money supply growth fell again in January. M2 growth rates have followed a similar course to TMS growth rates, although TMS has fallen faster than M2. Fed has stopped adding to its portfolio through quantitative easing and allowed a small amount ...
2023-03-06 05:45:00 ET Summary Central banks around the world have been adding liquidity. This includes China, Japan, Europe, and the US. The Treasury department has been spending down their account by using emergency measures to not breach the debt ceiling. This has had the e...
Summary In all previous Fed tightening episodes since 1989, the yield curve has never been as inverted as it is today. History strongly suggests that at this juncture in the monetary policy and economic cycles, yield curves are nearing a point of normalization. Yield curve normaliza...
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2024-07-01 14:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...