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2023-05-02 02:15:00 ET Summary Stock and bond markets ended the first quarter of 2023 with solid gains despite investor concerns. Gains in the stock and bond markets were primarily driven by a continued decline in interest rates, the rate of inflation, and surprisingly resilient e...
2023-05-01 13:10:00 ET Summary It appears the recession is right around the corner. As the recession begins, the yield curves will begin to steepen. The 2s10s have started but the 3m10s has not budged. The market can stay irrational for a long time, but in addition, this is th...
2023-04-25 11:41:00 ET Summary The month of April has seen the S&P 500 move within less than a 100-point range during regular sessions, adding only a few points more if one were to include overnight futures trading. It is absurd for the Fed to be hiking interest rates next wee...
2023-04-21 17:34:00 ET Summary What can breakeven inflation rates tell us about oil prices, energy stocks, and market direction? It turns out it’s a lot more than you think. With employment back to pre-pandemic levels, the monetary impulse has reversed, the supply-demand im...
2023-04-21 16:28:00 ET Summary Yesterday’s release of the Leading Economic Index from the Conference Board appears to settle the matter in favor of recession, but real-time analysis isn’t as clear-cut as this indicator suggests. The consultancy forecasts “econ...
2023-04-20 13:34:00 ET Summary The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is the gold standard of portfolios. The math on the 40% slice is much cleaner. A bond aggregate is about a 5-year instrument in my All Duration model. In today’s environment, the aggregated components of a 60...
2023-04-20 03:00:00 ET Summary Some of the recent economic data is beginning to show increasing evidence that activity does appear to be slowing. With respect to the UST 3mo/10yr measure, the inversion has still been gathering steam. While the 3-Month T-bill has been tethered ...
2023-04-20 02:54:00 ET Summary Managers have become less bearish on credit spreads with ~40% expecting spreads to be range-bound in the next 12 months. Inflation and the prospect of recession are the major concerns among managers. At the time of the survey close on Feb. 15, pa...
2023-04-20 01:44:00 ET Summary The US Federal Reserve could soon deliver the last hike of the current cycle. While 10Y yields have seen their peak already, it will need the imminent prospect of rate cuts to re-steepen the curves. We think cuts will come before the year ends, b...
2023-04-18 05:00:00 ET Summary U.S. Bank loans and leases declined by $105 billion in the two weeks following the banking system disruption, suggesting some downward pressure ahead for the U.S. economy. A plus 1% spread between the 1-year and the 10-year is a sign of a meaningfull...
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2024-07-01 14:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...