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We see the recent inflation spike as temporary due to unique restart forces, but see inflation on the rise in the medium term. Both views keep us pro-risk. U.S. April inflation was much higher than expected. We have expected noisy inflation data over coming months amid unusual supply/...
A new paradigm that has been created by the central banks, where lenders are paying many governments for the privilege of lending them money, as negative interest rates have taken hold and remain right up until this day. The Fed has not adopted the negative yield interest plan. Howeve...
CPI estimates for last month represented a seismic shift in the inflation debate. Producer prices, or PPI, came up even more over the moon than those for consumers. Transitory inflation is no inflation at all; unusually low nominal and real yields all around. You really have to wo...
Tapering fear is not affecting all financial markets alike, reflecting the nature of purchases, but also the drama surrounding each ECB meeting. Even if the path towards normalisation at the ECB is far from straightforward, the extent of its approximately €100 billion purchases...
It's not easy to grasp the rhythm coming from the US right now. Like any good hip hop mix, the rap is upbeat but the rhyme has a complexity toit. Inflationary tendencies are setting a hot beat, but there is a murky undercurrent coming from deep negative US real rates. The official...
Our Consumer Price Index may show some inflation, but the Treasury markets certainly do not reflect it. We have had a casino mentality in the equity markets for some time now, but rolling the dice and spinning the wheel have consequences - and they are beginning to show up. The eq...
Some leading speculative measurements have waned over the past couple of months, and the trend continues this week with the tech-heavy NASDAQ leading broader markets lower. The small-cap Russell 2000 index that led large-cap stocks higher into March 2021 is now -6.3% from its high and...
This year highlights the titanic struggle between the two monsters ruling interest rates markets: carry and volatility. The latter has driven rates over the past few weeks, but the respite could mean a sharper adjustment higher in rates and volatility down the line. There is poten...
Supply-side bottlenecks have increased prices for businesses. The longer these disruptions last, the higher the likelihood businesses pass on the rising costs to consumers. The impact of supply chain disruptions will also be felt in the medium to long term. For further detai...
It would appear that we have hit the bottom of the range on the 10-year Treasury yields and are getting ready to move back to the top of the recent range for yields, which is now 1.77%. I think Treasury yields will rise this week with resulting implications for the stock market, which...
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2024-07-01 14:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...