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Since the Fed first implemented its “zero interest rate policy” in the wake of the financial crisis, investors have been left with a bond market landscape that presented many challenges from an income perspective. With the dynamic duo of inflation and a Fed tightening po...
If inflation and rate increases do not rise above current market expectations, however, there is a case for longer-duration instruments. Asset allocation models are well documented across the investment universe, and portfolio diversification is a widely accepted principle. Histor...
As the Treasury curve flattened and yields rose, spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable municipals continued to show signs of weakness. Wider spreads and longer durations hurt our performance during the quarter, but locking in higher book yields should be beneficial to our...
We left a stimulated expansion and rising US stock market for a contracting “bear market” and likely economic recession. The stock market performed its traditional function by discounting the future and falling before an economic contraction began. Over the last two week...
Once the COVID distortions are over the economy will return to its previous state of roughly 2% growth and 2% inflation. Real sales of durable goods surged throughout COVID but accelerated rapidly with stimulus payments; sales peaked right as Biden’s American Rescue Act was imp...
Anchored by the deflationary experiences of the last decade, the Fed waited until headline CPI inflation had hit 7.9% before it finally started tightening monetary policy. This delayed response has permitted inflation expectations to rise and wage growth pressures to increase. Monetar...
The tone has become markedly risk-off, bonds rallying as risk assets sell off. The US curve starts signalling a looming cycle change as recession fears take over. As the first ECB hikes draw closer, the central bank deploys its first line of defence for bond spreads, but it remain...
Federal Reserve wants to hit the brakes, a 180-degree reversal from the recent two-year effort to turbo-stimulate the U.S. economy. USD's strength since early last year has defied a widening trade deficit, historic negative real interest rates, and growing anxiety that weaponizing the...
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index's preliminary estimate for June plunged to a record low. The good news from all this bad news is that “contrarian theory” says that when sentiment reaches such historic lows, the only way it can go is up. T...
Success in investing over the long term isn’t just about picking winners. By adopting a balanced diversified approach, your portfolio stands a better chance of achieving a stable return over time. In a rapid rising environment for equity markets, we expect fixed income to u...
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2024-07-01 14:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...