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The S&P 500 rallied 4.3% (down 13.3% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 3.0% (down 9.6%). The Banks gained 2.1% (down 18.0%), and the Broker/Dealers recovered 4.8% (down 11.0%). The Transports advanced 5.8% (down 11.3%). Investment-grade bond funds posted outflows of $2.442 billion, whi...
Inflation is still high, but it is no longer accelerating rapidly, and evidence of increasingly fragile economic activity is piling up. The headline surveys have weakened materially, especially in Europe, and the US economy entered a technical recession in the first half of the year. ...
On Thursday the Fed raised rates by another 75bps and reiterated its commitment to Quantitative Tightening. Over the last two months, the balance sheet has fallen by $25B vs. a target of $95B. The upcoming reductions will be too little too late to have any meaningful impact on red...
Financial markets in the first six months of 2022 broke many records, all of them bad. Both stock and bond prices declined significantly during the first six months of 2022, but at the end of that period, stock prices were still 22% higher than at the beginning of the Covid Pandemic. ...
The 2-10 spread has been inverted for a while, and if the Fed is hell-bent on front-loading rate hikes this summer, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread will invert soon. The Federal Reserve can cause a recession with rapid rate hikes in an economy that carries way too much financial l...
Consumer spending, industrial output, credit quality, and other indicators don’t suggest economic risk. The reduction of the deficit will contribute to the building of recessionary pressures. The best signals of a recessionary onset occur when a bulk of the yield spreads tu...
In the second quarter, we've seen double-digit negative returns across the fixed income landscape. For corporate bonds on the investment-grade side of things, we've seen spreads tick 160. A lot of what's going on right now is just the aftermath of a pandemic that's disrupted the h...
The VIX-yield curve cycle is a powerful economic phenomena that has persisted since at least the end of the 1980s. Recessions happen following periods of tight monetary policy, characterized by flat yield curves and high levels of equity volatility. Fed tightening is beginning to ...
The services side of the economy is considerably larger than the goods side and if it really is contracting at that rate, a recession is probably coming fairly soon. Investing is often a counterintuitive exercise and it is most counterintuitive – and hardest – at turning...
The current shape of the yield curve really does look like the bond market expects a recession to show up in the not-too-distant future. The compression in longer-dated maturities has been having a mostly positive effect on the stock market this week, particularly the growth-oriented ...
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2024-07-01 14:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...