U.S. Money Markets: Slow Calm To Steady State

2026-04-09 09:57:00 ET

By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas

Money markets and the Iran war – rates ultimately end up lower

The Iran war manifested in a material elevation in short-term inflation expectations. The US 2y break-even (market inflation) rate is around 3.1%, and to hit that break-even average, there is the threat that actual inflation heads for 4%. Given that, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates. And the Fed could even come under pressure to hike rates to help face down rising inflation expectations....

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