5 (More) Bubbles

2025-04-03 09:44:34 ET

Summary

• Sell half of your holdings in high-risk categories like quantum computing, bitcoin mining, engine leasing, cryptocurrencies, and mega cap tech stocks to mitigate potential 2025 downturns.
• Use proceeds to deleverage by paying down high-interest debt and consider safer investments like treasuries or Box spreads while awaiting better opportunities.
• Diversify out of US dollars and consider safer havens for assets and residence, such as Oceania, to protect against economic instability and geopolitical risks.
• Be cautious of asset price inflation since the 2007-2008 financial crisis; these recommendations may be early or wrong, but a Plan B is essential.

Disclaimer / Disclosure

Sell ½ (or Short)

For 2025, don’t buy SPY ; if you’re long, sell half and keep plenty of dry powder. Parts of today’s market combine a high price with euphoric sentiment. Here’s where I see the two combine —2024 year-end bragging over returns that have left securities at precarious heights that could lead to a rocky 2025. If you’re out, stay out. If you’re in, consider selling half…

Sell (half) of your SPDRs . Use the proceeds to deleverage, paying down any bad debt. Start with the highest rates; don’t borrow anything that costs over 10% and question borrowing anything that costs over 5%...

Sell half of any long or consider shorting these categories including specific examples such as QUBT , MARA , RIOT , FTAI , FTT-USD , and SPY . You can earn over 4% in treasuries or Box spreads ( BOXX ) as you await better opportunities. Certain markets appear expensive and precarious; time to resize.

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