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This morning’s CPI came in at 7.5%, hotter than expected. Not really that surprising. If some prices fall (commodities and car prices), then the back end of the year is going to see inflation decelerate back into that 3-4% core PCE range pretty quickly. In any case, inflation i...
The January U.S. CPI report indicated a higher pace of inflation than many observers expected. The price level of the core CPI advanced 0.6% month-over-month, largely driven by price hikes in retail goods. While we believe the CPI report increases the probability of the U.S. Federal R...
With inflation rising, fears that policymakers could tip economies into recession have eroded enthusiasm for stocks after three strong years. In this environment, equity investors must distinguish between businesses that are more likely to do well in an inflationary environment and th...
Focus on the monthly rate of change moderating rather than the headline number. Two important components of the index look poised to start declining. The rate of inflation is peaking with the pandemic. That should ease pressure on the Fed to tighten too aggressively, prolongin...
There is one huge thing that is missing in all the buzz about inflation: the surging M2 money supply. As real rates move higher, the demand for money becomes intense, liquidity becomes scarce, and marginal firms get squeezed. Swap spreads are a highly liquid indicator of general l...
In light of the December FOMC meeting minutes, we should expect modest increases in the federal funds target soon, with a reduction of the balance sheet following the increase in rates. The exact timing of balance sheet reduction is yet to be determined. The shift in tone reflects the...
Federal Reserve is about to embark on its most challenging period for policy adjustment in a generation. Every US recession since the 1957-58 downturn has been preceded by an increase in the Federal funds rate. Recessions are effective at reducing inflation. For further deta...
Inflation looks set to remain elevated in the near term, and this week’s US CPI report likely reinforces that narrative. Inflation expectations have already been on the decline since last November, yet remain at levels not seen in decades (anchored higher?). Further out, st...
Conditions will further normalize this year, which will help some of the harder-hit states see above-average gains as employment returns off its current low base. As oil prices spiraled downward in early 2020, the top oil-producing states saw their mining sectors completely unravel. ...
Disinflation, and ultimately deflation, is a more significant threat than inflation over the next two years. Over the coming decades, the massive surge in unproductive debt will increase deflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Throughout 2022, disinflation will likely b...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...