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According to a new report released Wednesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index increased in March by 8.6%, measured year-over-year; the largest increase in more than 40 years. March’s surge in consumer price inflation is also the twelfth month in a ...
Bonds are hated right now and people want to believe yields will only go higher from here. Whether or not a recession will eventuate is not yet clear, but a material slowdown in growth is certainly what the leading indicators of the growth cycle are pointing to. The current inflat...
The March print of 8.5% should be the peak rate of inflation. The prices of oil, gasoline, used cars, and lumber have all rolled over. The rates of change are likely to improve as year-over-year comparisons become more favorable. We should see real wage gains by year end as th...
Today's release of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey for March showed the index fell 2.4 points to 93.2. Again, the overall Optimism Index declined to 93.2 and is nearing the level reached at the depths of the Covid-led economic shutdown. The Federal Reserve's monetary polic...
Global growth uncertainty has accelerated, while inflation appears likely to persist. Still, we anticipate neither recession nor stagnation; moreover, central bank tightening expectations have likely peaked, potentially normalizing interest rate volatility and supporting spread sector...
Due to the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions and embargoes - on top of the already interrupted supply chain, plus a new COVID outbreak in China - global trade is grinding down to a slow-motion “holding” action. As a result of these disruptions, PMIs all over the...
We are now warning that inflation may accelerate even further, based on the events in Ukraine, before eventually falling to a “new normal” inflation rate. For most businesses, inflation erodes profit margins as they contend with rapidly increasing cost pressures. Inf...
Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-year highs after it became clear the Fed will start to reduce its balance sheet quickly. We see further yield ri...
The broader equity categories turned in negative results in Q1. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, held up the best at a decline of 4.6%. Bonds performed worse than many of the equity categories, despite typically being viewed as a safe haven investment. In t...
Does the yield curve inversion cause a recession or does it just provide a signal? Is the inversion only about expected future monetary policy? Do other factors also influence the shape of the curve, and if so, can we disentangle the various factors? There is a lot that we don’...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...