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As the budget deficit shrinks, more U.S. Treasury issued debt is finding its way onto the market, possibly putting upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs. Higher inflation and the Fed’s decision to begin raising short-term interest rates are major contributing factors to ...
Once we hit a 0% US real yield, we adopted a "turning point watch" position. We don't think we've seen it yet, primarily as inflation expectations continue to trend higher. Containment of these is crucial, else we move into an explosive state where we trek in the direction of 4%. ...
Do temporary supply disturbances explain the high inflation we have experienced over the last year? But supply disturbances play a bit part in the overall inflation story. Unlike supply disturbances, faster nominal spending drives up both prices and real output, which is what we a...
A fall of 20% from a former peak is called a bear market, a decline of 10% is labeled a correction, and a smaller decline is called a market phase. Today, the three popular US stock market indices can each be labeled with a different name. No wonder there is confusion concerning the c...
Only one major asset was up last week: REITs. There were some negative developments that might explain the selling. With the drop in commodities and fears about the impact of the China slowdown, the immediate effect should be for inflation and growth expectations to moderate. We didn&...
We like emerging market (EM) local debt within an overall bond underweight. Much monetary tightening has been done, and valuations are compelling. U.S. Treasury yields hit new three-year highs last week, and equities fell. We still think stocks can weather the yield rise in the inflat...
Historically, a recession followed when 50% or more of the tracked yield curves became inverted. Every time. Interestingly, many of the data points suggesting the “economy is booming” are lagging indicators subject to significant negative revisions in the future. Eve...
The invasion of Ukraine is an inflationary shock to an already inflationary system. The International Energy Agency has warned that the impact on oil supply will peak only from May onwards. Since the war broke out, core government bonds have suffered sustained price declines unsee...
We believe the conflict in Ukraine may turn out to be less critical for equity markets than the upcoming turn we anticipate in the economic growth cycle. In the near term, we expect the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) to continue to recover from its March trough. We expect the dis...
Inflation, by any measure, has been building momentum dating back to mid-2020. In the US, overall consumer inflation reached 8.5% in March, with food inflation at 8.8%. Economic theory suggests that building inflation expectations makes inflation more challenging to tame. This appears...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...