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In order to extend the rally in the stock market, we needed good news on the inflation front, and we needed the bond market to remain well-behaved. The resulting declines late Thursday and early Friday came quickly, putting us back in a situation where a retest of the May lows seems l...
Over the past quarter-century, central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have often stepped in and eased monetary policy when equity markets sold off. Now that inflation has risen to above 8% in both Europe and the U.S., lowering rates when the equit...
Many thought that U.S. inflation expectations peaked in March this year as April numbers saw a decline across both headline and core CPI. While a 50bp hike is already known, what is more noteworthy is the 20% probability at the time of writing that the policy rate may rise to 1.50-1.7...
Do things “break” because of rate hikes, or do they break on their own? My view is that the main effect of policy rate changes is via the effect on the housing market. At this point, worrying about the innards of inflation is a secondary concern relative to the ...
We could all be on the cusp of the most deadly inflation the world has ever experienced, due to a unique setup of global forces that have the power to accelerate that into happening in a surprisingly short amount of time. There is an obvious back channel by which inflation from Fed mo...
We’re not buying the stock dip because valuations haven’t really improved, there's a risk of Fed overtightening, and profit margin pressures are mounting. Stocks fell and yields jumped last week on news of persistent U.S. inflation and rapid euro area rate hikes, showing...
The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in higher than expected. The headline year-on-year price increase was 8.6%. Housing costs continue to inch higher, even using the government’s make-believe “owner’s equivalent rent” calculation. While the mainstre...
Have we seen the worst of expectations for Fed hikes? Retailer discounting a driver in the rollover of inflation expectations. Beware of backward-looking earnings estimates. For further details see: Beware Of Backward-Looking Earnings Estimates
The year-over-year change in core CPI peaked in March and is coming down, albeit slower than we’d all like to see. The economy is slowing in some areas and inflation is still high but probably peaking. Bond yields are starting to look pretty attractive relative to stock div...
High inflation is a symptom of an economy that’s in transition, an economy that’s out of whack. The U.S. Household Savings Rate, which has hovered around 5% for most of this century, spiked to almost 35% in the first weeks of the pandemic. To protect the economy from...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...