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The word inflation was first used to describe an increase in the money supply. Rising gasoline prices push up the Consumer Price Index, but there’s no reason to expect this to be persistent. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates in steps while reducing their holdings of...
Fed tightening intended to lower inflation will slow the economy through tighter financial conditions: lower stock prices, higher bond yields, wider risk spreads, and a strong dollar. Inflation remains very high following some easing in prices for nonfood, nonenergy goods that rose sh...
By definition, a bear market is a decline of 20% or more from a prior peak; there have been 13 bear markets since 1946. The fundamental driver of today’s market environment is inflation, which became a problem in the middle of 2021. The market pullback driven fundamentally ...
Faced with evidence of PCE inflation’s being above target for the month of April and evidence of an accelerating CPI from April to May, the FOMC is virtually certain to raise its target range for federal funds by another 50 basis points, as committee members have telegraphed. C...
The most recent CEO Confidence Index suggests that most leaders are concerned about the economy over the next few quarters. Businesses are gloomy because consumer confidence, which is where they derive their revenue and profits, suggests dismal growth ahead. Fed rate hiking campai...
After months of hand-wringing, U.S. indexes are now in bear market territory across the board, down 20% from their most recent highs. Right now, markets are caught in a tug-of-war between what may happen in the future—as a result of what the Fed does to control inflation—...
The private sector balance increased by over $112 billion in May 2022. Credit creation from commercial banks was strong at $116B+. The seasonal pattern is up from here until the end of September, however midterm election years tend to be flat until then. Fed rate increases and...
We think the Federal Reserve is likely to remain hawkish both in policy and communication until there is a turn in either the labor data or an improvement in inflation. Housing activity is already decelerating and is at the leading edge of Fed policy. As housing activity slows, pricin...
The ECB left its key interest rate unchanged at -0.5%, which is amazing considering that market rates have been rising and inflation in the eurozone is higher than in the U.S. The ECB is so far behind the inflation curve and market rates that they have guaranteed a weak euro, which ir...
In order to extend the rally in the stock market, we needed good news on the inflation front, and we needed the bond market to remain well-behaved. The resulting declines late Thursday and early Friday came quickly, putting us back in a situation where a retest of the May lows seems l...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...