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Back in January, I said inflation had peaked. This morning’s Core PCE data seals the deal for me – it looks like inflation peaked in February. Another big theme of mine in recent years was that the Fed was behind the curve both ways. So, defining inflation as an incr...
Despite extremely small growth, money supply is still expanding, which is going to make it very hard for inflation to get back to 2%. When looking at the average monthly growth rate by month before Covid, May historically expands at an annualized 6.3%. This compares to 1.3% for the cu...
Data released in June showed that annual headline CPI inflation - previously thought to be cooling - had touched a new 40-year high. Substantial rate hikes are possible as the Fed remains focused on stabilizing prices; however, in the process, a recession may become unavoidable. W...
One possible explanation for inflation is falling productivity. Casual observation suggests increased government spending causes inflation. Real-time assessments of aggregate supply and aggregate demand on inflation are pretty difficult. By Alexander William Salter ...
Pandemic related inflation caused by supply chain issues and a shift in spending patterns continue to be important. Food and energy inflation are now dominating headline inflation, and are being exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Inflationary pressures are likely to recede in the ...
Judging by every other opinion, the US looks like it’s headed into a recession. Jobless claims have risen to 230,000 from March ’22’s low of 166,000 with the difference of 66,000 being a 38% jump in jobless claims since mid-March. If the S&P 500 can hold t...
The second quarter of 2022 was another brutal one for fixed-income instruments, with yields rising across the board. The story was even worse for tax-free munis. The Fed’s hiking, coupled with their sharply more hawkish rhetoric, has spooked all bond markets since March and thr...
No longer is M2 surging at double-digit rates. If this keeps up, inflation could get back to something like "normal" by early next year. The Fed has not lost control of the situation, and inflation expectations are not "unmoored." Bottom line, the market expects inflation to norma...
As of June 2022, the United States is not in stagflation, nor is most of the world, but it’s likely coming. The root cause is the timing effects of monetary policy. Tighter monetary policy curbs the demand for goods and services. Employment falls first, and only later does infl...
The rhythm of the markets has gradually, but permanently, changed over the last 40 years. Despite the (relatively) positive trend in reopening sectors of the economy, the labor market is showing signs of slowing. For now, inflation is the “singular mandate” of major ...
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2024-07-21 20:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-11 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE) rose 20.9% to $0.5541 on volume of 173,316,620 shares Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) rose 114.1% to $0.496799 on volume of 118,668,589 shares NLS Pharmaceutics Ltd. (NLSP) rose 67.6% to $0...