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We don’t know for sure what the direction of interest rates will be, but they are likely to remain very low or at the present levels. Also, inflation indicators are mixed, and arguments can be made for a rising inflation trajectory that will ultimately lead to higher interest r...
The BEA calculated a headline quarterly change which was substantially less than anticipated. The continuously compounded annual growth rate from Q1 to Q2 2021 was just 6.3%, compared to 6.1% Q4 to Q1. Primarily, US consumers and goods are clear outliers compared to what’s goin...
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.5% annual rate in Q2. That’s well above the 3.1% average growth that the U.S. experienced over 1947-2019. The Q2 growth puts the level of GDP at a new high, 0.8% above the peak that was...
Real gross domestic product increased at a 6.5 percent annualized rate in Q2, up from a 6.3 percent pace in Q1. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key measure of private domestic demand, rose at a very robust 9.9 percent annualized rate in Q2 following an 11.8 percent ...
Record low real yields across the world betray an exceptional degree of macro angst. Or do they? Don’t look at rates in isolation. Other markets are fine. The tide of central bank purchases lifts all boats, and normal liquidity conditions will only return at the end of the ...
Recently, downticks in Treasury yields are being met with selling pressure in value indexes and stocks. The stock market can’t make up its mind. Does it want high yields or low yields? This confusion is because inflation numbers are rising and interest rates are falling, which ...
Around the world, we are told that prices and sentiment are changing in an unexpected way. In scanning the present scene, I see lots of issues that should be reviewed, both in terms of numbers as well as structural concerns. Following the principle of winning by not losing, I sugg...
The best investing advice that we could give back in May was to “Sell in May and go away”. That advice really means to get your exposure smaller and do nothing. That served us well this past Monday as the Dow Jones fell over 700 points and then spent the rest of the week...
Given the fuss about the goods buying mania, if the whole domestic system were to match or even approach it, one would think this alleged inflationary boom would have to keep something like the CFNAI far above 0. However, the latest reading for June 2021 at just 0.09 indicates growth bare...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance totaled 419,000 for the week ending July 17, a rise of 51,000 from the previous week’s tally of 368,000. The revised results suggest weekly initial claims may be plateauing around the 400,000 level. The number of ongoing c...
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BETHESDA, Md. , March 11, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- AdvisorShares, a leading sponsor of actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), announced today that the AdvisorShares Madrona Global Bond ETF (NYSE Arca: FWDB) will no longer close and liquidate as previously announced on March 8, 2...