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Elevated inflation, slowing global economic growth expectations, and reduced central bank liquidity remain the key economic considerations. The policy interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Europe is likely to increase amid heightened recession risk in Europe. We expect mar...
The lingering pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are dealing a setback to the global economy. This is affecting trade, commodity prices, and financial flows, all of which are changing current account deficits and surpluses. Global current account balances, the overall si...
Global economic growth slowed to a crawl in July, according to the latest PMI survey data, led by the developed world falling into contraction for the first time in two years. Emerging market growth as a whole consequently remained broadly resilient at one of the fastest rates seen ov...
The latest data releases in emerging markets Asia confirmed that peak inflation in the region remains elusive. Unlike EM Asia, inflation surprises in EMEA and LATAM are actually heading south - together with actual annual inflation in some countries. There will be several importan...
Output fell in the United States, Eurozone, UK and Japan, while mainland China saw a reduced rate of expansion and the rest of Asia as a whole likewise mustered only modest growth. The global manufacturing PMI survey's Output Index signaled stalled production in July. The worsenin...
The second quarter was dominated by negative market sentiment amid worries over skyrocketing inflation and the risks of a global recession. The broad market selloff over the past few months led almost all markets to finish the second quarter with negative returns in U.S. dollars and l...
We don’t expect the slowdown in economies to result in a deep global recession. A repeat of the big increases in bond yields we saw in the first half of the year is unlikely. In this environment, higher quality credit is more attractive. Despite increasing pressures on prof...
Many of the downside risks flagged in our April World Economic Outlook have begun to materialize. Despite slowing activity, global inflation has been revised up, in part due to rising food and energy prices. As advanced economies raise interest rates to fight inflation, financial ...
The universe of high-quality growth investments outside the United States is broad and broadening. Over the near term, there is a bit of a growth headwind when you’re thinking about investing outside the U.S. Over the long term, however, the structural case remains - a very...
As inflation raged, central banks accelerated the pace of monetary policy tightening, aiming to slow the growth of aggregate demand and calm price pressures. In response to persistently high inflation and an upward drift in long-run inflation expectations, central banks are accelerati...